Hot, humid weather interrupted by a few showers and storms

finger lakes weather forecast monday june 28 2021 hot humid thunderstorms
Another hot and humid day is on tap before some isolated showers and storms late this afternoon. [Photo by Mary An Marks]

Hot and Unsettled

Heat Advisories are in effect once again today for portions of the region, but a wind shift late this afternoon will trigger a few showers and storms.

Temperatures will quickly rise from a mild start this morning underneath mostly sunny skies. By the mid to late morning, fair weather cumulus clouds will start to dot the sky.

The weather will remain dry through the mid-afternoon, allowing temperatures to again climb into the upper 80s and low to mid 90s. Heat index values will be above 95 degrees for most areas that see temperatures at or above 90 degrees.

Southwest winds will blow at 5-10 mph today, which will be less than the last few days. Top gusts will be in the 20-25 mph range.

After 3 PM a shift in the wind to the northwest will drop south off Lake Ontario. This temporary wind shift will act as a trigger for a broken line of showers and a few thunderstorms.

Despite the heat and humidity at the surface, the atmosphere as a whole is not overly favorable for thunderstorms, so development will be modest and severe weather is generally not expected.

The showers will quickly dissipate as the sun sets and skies will go back to being mostly clear this evening. Temperatures will remain plenty warm, with mid 70s for the evening and low 70s overnight.

A similar pattern will unfold tomorrow, with sunshine to start and scattered showers and storms during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will not be quite as hot, topping out mostly in the mid and upper 80s. A few urban areas will probably reach 90 degrees before the showers develop.

And again, Wednesday will follow suit. The chances for rain look a bit higher on Wednesday, but there will still be areas that miss out on the scattered showers and storms that develop. Highs will be in the mid 80s with a few warmer pockets.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday june 28 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Temperatures Drop, Rain Chances Rise

By Thursday, an actual cold front will drop into the region. Showers and thunderstorms will be numerous on Thursday, though the most robust thunderstorm action may remain to our south and east.

With plenty of cloud cover, numerous showers, and winds turning to the northwest, temperatures will be much cooler. Most places will see highs in the low and mid 70s after morning lows in the upper 60s.

Friday is a bit uncertain, but the front may still be in the neighborhood. This could bring us a second day of cooler, cloudy, showery weather.

Depending on how the showers and storms develop during the first part of this week, and how heavy the rain gets at the end of the week, the chances for excessive rainfall are worth keeping in mind, just in case everything comes together.

Rain chances should drop as we head into the 4th of July weekend, but this far out, it is a bit uncertain. Again, the hang-up will be the frontal boundary and how quickly it moves on.

Regardless, temperatures will likely stay on the cooler side with highs remaining in the 70s through the weekend. Warmer weather is more likely the week after.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday june 28 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.