Rain tapers off but humidity remains

finger lakes weather forecast thursday august 19 2021 clouds rain tropical storm fred
The weather will remain warm and muggy, but mostly rain-free for the next two days. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Fred Departs

Outside of a few lingering showers this morning, the remains of Tropical Storm Fred have departed the Finger Lakes region.

Nearly twenty flooding reports were published by the National Weather Service from the rain last night, but there were likely many more incidents than reported. South-central Steuben County in particular was hit with severe, destructive flooding.

My thoughts and prayers are with everyone impacted by the flooding and I sincerely hope that the losses were a minimum.

Thankfully, there should be little additional rain over the next 48 hours.

The stray showers this morning will not cause any additional flooding, and they should mostly end by the afternoon hours. Skies will remain cloudy into the early afternoon before some breaks of sunshine start to appear from west to east.

There are some blustery northwest winds on the backside of the circulation associated with Fred, which is situated over the southeastern Finger Lakes this morning. These winds will diminish by the afternoon.

The clouds and winds will hold temperatures to the mid and upper 70s today. The Rochester area, where sunshine should first appear, may get to around 80 degrees. Dewpoints will remain muggy in the upper 60s to near 70.

Sunshine should be more common tomorrow, and while a stray shower cannot be totally ruled out, most areas will stay dry. Winds will be light with speeds near or under 5 mph.

Temperatures will rise to around 80 degrees for many areas. As usual, the Thruway region will be warmest in the low 80s, with mid 80s near Rochester. Dewpoints will change little.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 19 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Weather & Next Week

The weather for Saturday continues to be on the uncertain side thanks to an uncommon, complex weather set up.

What should be Hurricane Henri will be off the Mid-Atlantic coast while a front slides into the Upper Great Lakes. These two factors, but especially Henri, will cause moisture to seep northeastward toward our region from the Atlantic.

There will be little in the atmosphere to trigger precipitation, but a subtle boundary may try to develop that could be a focal point for showers.

The concern is for localized slow-moving downpours given the increase in available moisture and light winds aloft. Obviously, any prolonged heavy rain would be troublesome for our region. Thankfully, most models tend to keep the heaviest and more widespread shower activity to the east. So, while scattered showers will be around, hopefully we will avoid further flooding.

Given that this is an uncommon set up and that the models struggle with the outside influences of tropical systems and resolving downpours in a set-up where there is not a notable weather system in the immediate area, confidence remains lower than normal in the details of how Saturday will unfold. Continue to check back for details.

Sunday may also have some showers around, especially in the eastern half of the region. However, the subtle boundary, if it even develops, will have shifted away from the region, so the chances for rain are lower Sunday than Saturday.

Temperatures will remain near 80 on Saturday and will warm to the low and mid 80s on Sunday.

The aforementioned front will slide through on Monday with just a few more scattered showers and continued muggy conditions. Behind the front, the humidity may briefly lessen for a dry but warm Tuesday.

More showers and storms will be possible late next week as heat and humidity remain and a more potent front approaches.

More Information:

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Finger Lakes Weather Radar

» Zip Code Forecasts

» Your Forecast
finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday august 19 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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