Frontal boundary hangs around for an unsettled week

finger lakes weather forecast monday september 13 2021 sun clouds front showers thunderstorms
The daytime hours Monday and Tuesday will be tranquil but showers and storms will be possible tonight and especially Wednesday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil]

Early Week Weather

A frontal boundary moved into the region yesterday and will waver to and fro across the Finger Lakes over the coming days.

A fast moving cluster of thunderstorms raced along this boundary last night. Thankfully, stable air at the surface prevented most of the strong winds associated with the storm from reaching the ground.

Still, with a good deal of wind in the atmosphere aloft above the front, we are not done with the potential for strong thunderstorms.

For today though, the front will sag southward and the daytime hours will be quiet. Sunshine will gradually increase throughout the region before some late clouds build back in.

With the front to the south, winds will be lightly from the northwest for most of the day. This evening, the wind will be a bit more chaotic in direction as the front sneaks back northward, but wind speeds will be under 5 mph.

High temperatures will mostly be in the mid 70s. It should be less humid with daytime dewpoints in the mid 50s.

Scattered showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms will move in again this evening. The best chance for rain will be in the southwestern Finger Lakes for places like Wellsville, Dansville, and Bath. Again, the chances for a strong cluster of storms will need to be watched but seems less likely than last night.

The daytime hours Tuesday should likewise be mostly dry. The front will be lifting northeastward through the region, so a few stray showers cannot be totally ruled out. Most of the activity should flare up in the evening to the east of our region while a second area of storms develops over Canada ahead of a cold front.

Skies Tuesday should have plenty of sunshine mixing with patches of clouds. Winds will be from the southwest and a bit on the blustery side from Elmira to Dansville, where gusts over 25 mph will be possible.

The shift in the wind will allow hot and humid air into the region with highs in the low or even mid 80s and dewpoints pushing into the mid and upper 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday september 13 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Stormy Wednesday, Then Some Showers

The cold front over Canada Tuesday night will gradually drop southeast towards the Finger Lakes on Wednesday. The main questions with the front will be how quickly it moves through the region, and how much clouds and rain are ahead of it Wednesday morning.

The further south and east, the better the chances for temperatures to make it to near or above 80 degrees. Elmira, Ithaca, Cortland, and Binghamton currently have the best shot at 80 degrees.

If temperatures can get this high, the stage will be set for strong thunderstorms to develop. However, if it stays cloudy and showery through the morning, the front will probably push through with little threatening weather.

I have been monitoring this closely since the middle of last week and will continue to keep a close eye on the potential.

Behind the front, Thursday looks like a mostly dry day. Like Tuesday, however, a couple stray showers cannot be totally discounted. Highs will retreat back into the mid 70s.

The chance for a few showers increases slightly on Friday. It will not be a washout and many areas will probably not see rain. Warmer air will quickly move back in with highs returning to the low 80s.

Unsettled weather looks possible into the weekend but remains uncertain this far in advance. Temperatures should be mild but will ultimately depend on the clouds and any showers.

A generally mild pattern looks likely into next week. As usual, the precipitation outlook is highly uncertain, but at least some rain will probably fall on a couple days next week.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast monday september 13 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.