Up and down temperatures as pattern stays active

finger lakes weather forecast thursday december 2 2021 rain wind lake effect snow
Periods of rain will accompany gusty winds as a cold front marches through the area today. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Thursday-Friday Weather

A fairly strong area of low pressure is racing eastward across Canada and will pass well north of New York State by this afternoon.

This low is dragging a cold front through the Great Lakes, which will arrive in the Finger Lakes this afternoon.

Out ahead of the front, warm air will continue to build into the area even as a band of rain moves through. Temperatures will peak during the early afternoon with highs in the upper 40s. Several areas from Rochester to Geneva to Penn Yan could reach 50 degrees.

The first area of rain will move through during the late morning and midday hours. This will be followed by more scattered showers throughout the afternoon.

Winds will turn from the southwest to the west-northwest as the front moves through. The winds will be blustery, with gusts of 35-40 mph for much of the region. Areas along the shore of Lake Ontario and along and west of I-390 may gust higher, and Wind Advisories are in place for those areas.

Temperatures will not really start to drop until the sun sets but will quickly end up in the 30s. Rain showers will turn to flurries with little to no accumulation.

After midnight, some narrow but squally bands of lake effect will develop south and southeast of Lake Ontario. With some support added in from the Upper Great Lakes, some bands may end up further west than usual.

Nonetheless, the bands will be transient, and with their narrow structure, it will be hard to get snow to accumulate much. Only a few isolated pockets should see over an inch by Friday morning.

Wind gusts will remain between 25-30 mph through the night, helping temperatures to fall to the upper 20s and low 30s. Temperatures will only rise a few degrees on Friday, with highs mostly between 32 and 35 degrees.

Narrow-banded lake snows will continue Friday morning but will gradually dissipate during the midday and afternoon hours. Some suns will shine outside of the lake effect and throughout the region by the late afternoon.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday december 2 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Weekend Weather and Beyond

Temperatures will drop into the 20s Friday evening but then rise a few degrees overnight as winds turn back to the south ahead of the next system.

This system will be weaker and still far to the north, so only some scattered rain and snow showers are expected. These will be especially likely across the northern half of the region and especially during the first half of the day.

Like today, winds will turn to the west-northwest during the afternoon and increase with gusts over 30 mph possible. Before the cool air moves in, highs will top out around 40 degrees.

Sunday will be similar to our weather yesterday. Clouds will be in the area, but much of the time, they may be thin and allow some sun to shine through. Gradually, the clouds will thicken, and some evening precipitation may be possible.

High temperatures Sunday will be close to the climatological averages, reaching the mid and upper 30s. Warm air will move in Sunday night, pushing temperatures into the 40s Monday morning and the upper 40s Monday afternoon.

The weather system moving in on Monday will be closer than the one today and at least equally as strong. Winds have the potential to become strong, especially near the Great Lakes. This will be something to watch through the weekend.

The chances that this system ends up snowy have mostly diminished with the track trending further west and north, placing our area solidly in the warm sector.

As usual, though, cool air will move in behind the low later Monday, and Tuesday will have some scattered lake effect snow showers with highs only around 30.

There will be a better chance for widespread accumulating snow toward the middle of next week. There does not seem to be much of a pathway to a major snow at this time, but a light to moderate snow is a reasonable early speculation, if it ends up snowing at all.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thursday december 2 2021
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.