A weak frontal boundary has parked itself over the Finger Lakes region today.
The front will result in a north-south temperature gradient, nearly calm winds, and some late-day rain showers and fog.
Afternoon highs today will be warmest in the Southern Tier between Elmira and Binghamton, where mid 50s are likely. Temperatures will cool to the north, with much of the central Finger Lakes in the low 50s and upper 40s. North of the Thruway, mid 40s are more likely, while right along Lake Ontario may be even cooler.
Much of the daytime will be cloudy with little to no wind. A small disturbance riding along the front will bring some scattered rain showers in for the second half of the afternoon and the very early evening hours. Most areas should see under a tenth of an inch of rain, though a few pockets will see more, and some areas will see no rain at all.
Conditions for fog will become favorable as the sun sets, especially for any areas that manage to keep a little snow on the ground. The fog should be fairly widespread this evening, though there are always hyper-local variations.
Nighttime temperatures will drop into the low 30s. Anywhere that dips below freezing could see some freezing fog.
Fog and clouds will burn off Wednesday morning and sunshine will increase. The front will push to the north, opening the area back up to an influx of warm air. Light southwest winds will help transport the warmer air into the region.
Look for highs Wednesday afternoon to be in the upper 50s with pockets of low 60s. Even higher elevations should get above 55 degrees.
Temperatures Peak, Unsettled Weekend
The warmest day of the week will come on Thursday.
South winds will increase slightly Wednesday night, keeping nighttime temperatures near 40 degrees.
Sunshine will mix with some thin clouds on Thursday but will mostly be uninhibited. Temperatures will rise well into the 60s as a result. A few areas in the Thruway corridor may hit 70 degrees for the second time this month.
Winds will swing around to a more northerly direction on Friday as low pressure begins to organize over the Mid-Mississippi Valley. This low will result in a frontal boundary to the south over Pennsylvania.
The front will lift north later Friday, causing an increase in clouds and a few late day rain showers. Temperatures will not be as warm as Thursday, but still plenty mild with highs in the upper 50s.
Rain will become more likely on Saturday. Temperatures will depend on the northward extent of the front, but at least a brief time in the 50s seems increasingly likely.
Some wintry weather cannot be completely ruled out late Saturday, but these chances are dwindling and may be limited to a few higher elevation snowflakes mixing in with the rain Saturday night.
Rain showers, and any snow mixing in, will come to an end Sunday morning. Temperatures will settle in the mid 40s, which is right on the climatological average high for the first day of Spring.
Temperatures will not stay near average, though, with 50s returning on Monday and continuing through most of the week yet again.
After next weekend, the temperature pattern becomes less certain. By the time we hit April 1st, though, average highs are in the upper 40s, and by the end of April, the low 60s.
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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