Dry weather continues until Friday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday may 25 2022 clouds sun mild dry
Showers and a few storms will become likely Friday into Saturday. Until then, skies will remain somewhat cloudy. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Wednesday-Thursday Weather

High pressure centered east of Maine continues to keep our weather quiet, though a large storm system across the middle of the country will eventually nudge it out of the way.

On the edge between these two systems, our weather will continue to be dry, but occasionally cloudy, for the next two days.

Cloud cover is nearly splitting the region in half this morning, with a batch of thick clouds roughly across the southern half of the region, with sunshine and thin clouds to the north. Cloud cover will vary in its extent throughout the day, but the chances for grey, overcast skies are higher than mostly sunny skies.

Light south winds will blow today, starting with speeds around 5 mph through the morning. The afternoon will see a slow but gradual increase in wind speed with a more substantial increase coming after sunset.

Winds will blow at 10-15 mph tonight and around 15 mph on Thursday. Gusts will increase to 30-35 mph during the day Thursday. These winds will continue to come in from the south.

Skies Thursday will continue to be mixed, though the chances for overcast skies are lower than today.

For temperatures, highs today will reach the low and mid 70s. Some areas across the Southern Tier may end up closer to 70 degrees, with upper 60s along the shore of Lake Ontario.

Tonight will have seasonable temperatures in the mid 50s, with highs on Thursday getting a slight boost from the increase in wind. Look for afternoon highs to top out in the mid and upper 70s for most. Areas northwest of Geneva and especially around Rochester will be into the low 80s.

Thursday night will be warm as clouds thicken and a few stray rain showers drift through. Overnight lows will only drop to the mid 60s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday may 25 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Some Rain Chances, Turning Hot Again

Unsettled weather will finally push into the Finger Lakes on Friday. Scattered rain showers are likely with the possibility of some thunderstorms.

As I mentioned yesterday, there is decent support for thunderstorms from the winds aloft, but meager fuel for the storms to work with. If some sunshine works its way out in the morning, there could be a limited severe threat.

More likely, as things look now, is for just some rumbles of thunder to go along with the rain showers. Even just two days out, though, uncertainty in severe thunderstorm forecasting remains high, so this is something I will continue to watch. For the record, the Storm Prediction Center does have our area in a Level 1—Marginal risk for Friday.

Rain showers and a few rumbles of thunder are expected to linger into Saturday morning. The afternoon hours should turn drier and sunnier.

Saturday will likely be the coolest upcoming day, but highs should still top out around 70 degrees.

From there, temperatures will begin a warming trend, with upper 70s Sunday and mid 80s on Monday for Memorial Day. Both days look dry with a good amount of sunshine.

The real heat will build in for the middle of next week. Temperatures will approach, if not exceed, 90 degrees for at least Tuesday and Wednesday. Thursday could very well make it a third day of heat, but a cold front will be approaching.

The front will knock temperatures back towards next weekend with highs closer to 70 degrees. After dry weather most of next week, the cold front should bring some rain.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday may 25 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.