Late day front brings a few showers, chilly air

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday september 14 2022 sun clouds showers cold front
Temperatures tonight should fall well into the 40s with highs Thursday in only the low and mid 60s. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Cold Front

Low pressure is finally departing the region, but it will drag one final front through the region late today before leaving for good.

This morning, our region is nestled into an area of quiet weather. Clear skies allowed temperatures to drop into the 40s and 50s overnight. The same clear skies will allow temperatures to warm steadily this morning.

During the second half of the morning, fair weather clouds will begin to develop and will persist into the afternoon. Temperatures should reach the mid 70s with a few low 70s in higher elevations.

Northwest winds will blow at around 10 mph with gusts around 25 mph.

The chance for showers will mostly hold off until after 4 PM, though a stray shower before that time cannot be ruled out. The showers this afternoon will be small, individual cells, possibly aligning in a broken line that stretches from west to east and drops southeastward.

The individual showers should be short-lived, though the rain may come hard for a few minutes. Some areas may see a couple of showers, while others see little to no rain. Showers may linger an hour or two after sunset but should not persist longer than that.

Skies will clear again tonight as chilly air slides into the area. Widespread lows in the 40s are expected, with many areas near or below 45 degrees. I continue to feel a few pockets of 30s would not at all be surprising in the western Southern Tier or in and around Cortland County.

Thursday will be sun-filled, yet chilly. North and northwest winds will blow between 5-10 mph with gusts around 20 mph. Highs in the low and mid 60s will be the best the temperature can do before another cold night well down into the 40s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday september 14 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Warming Trend… Interrupted?

Despite starting down in the 40s, Friday will be a mild day as temperatures quickly climb on the backs of ample sunshine and a push of warmer air from the west. At the surface, winds will be nearly calm, but breezy conditions aloft will bring the warmer air in. Afternoon highs will make a jump into the low and mid 70s.

Accompanying the influx of warmer temperatures will be some thin clouds. These will not block the sun much at all on Friday. Saturday, however, may be a bit cloudier as some lower-level fair weather clouds mix in as well.

Temperatures will be mild on Saturday. Morning lows will start out ranging through the 50s. In the afternoon, many areas should hit or exceed 80 degrees.

The models have begun a shift for Sunday and next week away from continued, persistent heat and into a more unsettled pattern. Since this shift is significant and dependent on precipitation, which is always uncertain this far out, the forecast confidence is low starting Sunday.

Assuming the trend continues, several days of showers and storms will again be possible Sunday and deep into next week. This would hold temperatures in the 70s.

On the flip side, the scenario the models had been showing was sunny, dry weather with highs well into the 80s. Still, any day that does not see much rain, or has the rain hold off until late in the afternoon, could easily see temperatures shoot up into the 80s.

Cooler weather is expected to settle in by next weekend with highs potentially down into the 60s. These cooler temperatures should take us into the end of September. By October 1, the average high in Ithaca is just 65 degrees, with an average low of 43 degrees.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wednesday september 14 2022
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.