Some afternoon sunshine today, then rainy conditions Thursday

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday february 8 2023 clouds sun rain freezing rain mild
Temperatures will remain above average, but a few pockets of ice will still be possible early Thursday as rain moves into the area. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Mid-Week Weather

A warm front moved through the Finger Lakes last evening, followed quickly by a cold front overnight.

Behind the front, west and northwest winds off the lower Great Lakes are producing plenty of morning cloud cover. The clouds, in turn, have temperatures starting in the mid 30s.

High pressure over the Ohio Valley will gradually extend its influence into our region. During the afternoon, this should lead to some clearing skies. Sunshine is thus expected for especially the second half of the afternoon.

Winds will be as high as 10 mph this morning but will weaken to near 5 mph this afternoon. Top gusts will come in the morning at up to 25 mph.

As long as the sun comes out as scheduled, as clouds can oftentimes be overly stubborn to depart, high temperatures should reach the mid 40s today. If the sun is delayed, low 40s would be more likely.

New clouds will begin to move in around sunset from the southwest. These will be scattered at first but will increase and thicken this evening. The overnight should be overcast.

Temperatures will initially drop into the mid and upper 20s this evening but will rise back to the low and mid 30s before sunrise. South and southeast winds will increase after midnight to help facilitate the overnight warming.

The wind will become quite blustery during the day Thursday, with wind speeds around 15 mph and gusts of 30-40 mph. The strongest winds will be over the higher elevations and will come in from the south.

Several waves of rain will also move through the region, starting as early as around sunrise in the southwestern Finger Lakes. The rain will move northeast through the region. A few pockets of freezing rain may be briefly possible across the Southern Tier and into Central New York through the mid-morning hours.

Rain will be on and off into the afternoon and evening hours as temperatures rise. Daytime temperatures will reach the low and mid 40s but evening temperatures will warm further, into the upper 40s and even low 50s.

A cold front will move through around midnight, sending temperatures back to the mid 30s to start Friday.

finger lakes weather medium range snow outlook wednesday february 8 2023 see blog text for pertinent information
Snow chances will continue to be nearly non-existent for the near-future. Click to enlarge.

Weekend, Next Week’s Weather

The low pressure responsible for the rain and mild weather on Thursday will be situated over northern New England on Friday. A trailing area of locally lower pressures will extend west from the center of low pressure towards northern Michigan.

This subtle feature may be enough to keep our region cloudy on Friday. Sunny skies are more likely across Pennsylvania and southeastern New York, and at least some breaks of sun could enter into the southeastern Finger Lakes from time to time.

Assuming it overall is a cloudy day, temperatures will top out in the mid 40s. If more sunshine builds in, upper 40s or low 50s would become possible.

West-southwest winds will still be blustery Friday morning with speeds over 10 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. The wind will gradually weaken during the afternoon and then turn to the northwest Friday night.

This will bring in some cooler air and a few lake effect snow showers for Saturday. Little to no accumulation is expected, but highs will stick to the mid 30s.

A period of dry and sunny weather will most likely unfold beginning Sunday and lasting through Tuesday. As long as this holds true, temperatures should remain well into the 40s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed feb 8 | wed, am clouds gradual sun mid 40 | thur, periods of rain upper 40 | fri, mostly cloudy mid 40 | sat, a few flurries mid 30 | sun, sunny a few clouds mid 40 | mon, sun and clouds mid 40 | tues, sun and clouds upper 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

There are a few stray models that try to bring some snow into the area on Sunday night. I do not expect this to happen but included minimal probabilities in the snow outlook for now, just to account for those models.

Rain is likely towards the middle of next week, with again a very low chance for some nighttime snow on the backside of the weather system. It will become increasingly warm for the end of next week, but temperatures are expected to crash for a day next Saturday with highs in the 20s before bouncing right back above average.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed feb 8 | wed, am clouds gradual sun mid 40 | thur, periods of rain upper 40 | fri, mostly cloudy mid 40 | sat, a few flurries mid 30 | sun, sunny a few clouds mid 40 | mon, sun and clouds mid 40 | tues, sun and clouds upper 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.