Friday-Saturday Cold
Temperatures across the Finger Lakes early Friday morning range from the mid 50s in the southeast to near 30 in the northwest.
A sharp dividing line between the warm and cooler air is slowly pressing eastward as a cold front. Areas still in the warmth will have a limited time before temperatures begin to fall.
Precipitation along the front, however, is surprisingly sparse. To the south and east of the front, there are a few scattered rain showers. To the north and west, there are even fewer snow showers and only a few small pockets of freezing rain.
Road conditions are thus mixed, but generally in fair to good shape. Be wary of a few slick spots nonetheless, as the cold air entrenches itself further into the region.
As the front passes, northwest winds will pick up with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts of 25-35 mph. Temperatures will continue to slide backward and into the mid and upper 20s this afternoon.
Scattered snow showers are expected throughout the day today and into the evening hours. However, this system has consistently underperformed expectations, so there is some uncertainty about just how many snow showers will actually develop today.
Regardless, accumulations will be minimal, with no more than an inch falling throughout the day, and only localized areas of up to an inch this evening. The snow is most likely tonight across the northern and eastern Finger Lakes, as is typical for lake effect on a northwest wind.
The wind will shift more westerly after midnight, gradually ending the lake effect. Some areas may even see clear skies before sunrise Saturday. Temperatures will bottom out in the mid 10s Saturday morning.
After sunrise, southwest winds will take over with speeds up to 10 mph. Skies will be a mix of sunshine and some occasional clouds. Highs should reach the low 40s for many areas, though pockets of upper 30s are also likely.
Uncertainties Next Week
The weather for Sunday and Monday continues to look straightforward, while the rest of next week still has high uncertainty.
Sunday will be mostly to completely cloudy, but a bit warmer than Saturday. Morning lows will start near or slightly below 30 degrees, while afternoon highs will top out in the mid 40s.
On Monday, a small weather system will move through with scattered rain showers. The precipitation looks light, and while there may be a little snow mixing in at the end, no accumulations are expected.
An active storm track near or directly over the region is leading to high uncertainty next week. Small shifts in the expected storm tracks will result in oversized shifts in the forecast.
That being said, the trend has so far been towards a more northern storm track, which would in turn keep much of our precipitation next week as rain with above average temperatures persisting.
The chance for mostly rain is high Tuesday into Wednesday, with Tuesday the favored day for precipitation. Highs may easily be in the 40s on Tuesday.
Wednesday may end up mostly dry, but temperatures are quite uncertain. Highs will probably end up somewhere between 35-45 degrees.
Late Wednesday into Thursday, a potent system will move into the area. All modes of precipitation, snow, ice, and rain, will be possible. At this point, it is impossible to say how much of each our region will experience.
Depending on the path of this system, a wedge of warm air may be possible later Thursday into Friday. Any substantial warming would be brief.
Temperatures next weekend and into the following week also have a large degree of variability showing on the models. Neither significant cold nor significant warmth seems likely, though.
There are chances for snow showing during the following week as well. While no individual incident showing the models has any creditability, overall, it is indicative of a continuing active weather pattern.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Stay Updated With Email Alerts
