Hot Thursday followed by a cold front Friday

finger lakes weather forecast thursday july 6 2023 sun clouds heat advisories showers storms
A few showers or storms may bubble up in the heat and humidity this afternoon with better chances for rain Friday and Sunday. [Photo by Meteorologist Drew Montreuil, Owasco Lake]

Heat Advisories

A hot and humid day is expected across the Finger Lakes today before a cold front breaks the heat tomorrow.

Temperatures will quickly climb through the 70s and into the 80s this morning thanks to sunny skies and a light south wind. By this afternoon, most places will be at or above 90 degrees. With dewpoints in the mid and upper 60s, the heat index will be several degrees higher than the actual temperature.

The National Weather Service has issued a Heat Advisory for all the region except Allegany, Cortland, and Wyoming counties. Heat Index values over 95 degrees are expected.

A few pop-up showers and storms are expected this afternoon. These should be few and far between so that most places will end up staying dry through the afternoon. The best chance for rain will come after 3 PM, and west of Seneca Lake and along and north of I-90.

Most of the activity that fires up should dissipate as the sun sets, but a few stray showers cannot be ruled out during the evening or overnight.

It will be a very warm, muggy night with lows in the upper 60s to near 70 degrees.

New shower activity will start to pop up around dawn on Friday and will continue through the morning hours. Some thunderstorms may join during the late morning and midday hours as the front moves through.

The most widespread, heavy rain and thunderstorms Friday afternoon are expected to stay east of the Finger Lakes area, but any slight delay in the timing of the front could bring some of that heavier rain into the far eastern areas. Most areas should end up having a dry afternoon.

Temperatures will top out around 80 degrees on Friday. Dewpoints will come crashing down behind the front, bringing some relief from the humidity during the afternoon.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu jul 6 | thur, a few late storms low 90 | fri, early, midday storms near 80 | sat, sun and clouds low 80 | sun, am rain and thunder mid 70 | mon, sun and clouds near 80 | tues, sun and clouds mid 80 | wed, scattered t-storms low 80
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Sunday, Wednesday Rain Chances

Saturday will be a dry day as a small bubble of high pressure drifts through. Winds will be nearly calm and temperatures will top out near or just above 80 degrees. Dewpoints will also remain low, making for an all in all pleasant day.

Some thin clouds will pass through, so the sunshine may get filtered from time to time.

By Saturday evening, north winds from Canada will clash with south winds from the Mid-Atlantic, giving birth to a frontal boundary over the region. This will lead to increasing clouds Saturday evening, and rain breaking out during the predawn hours.

How the rain evolves Sunday morning is a point of concern. There is some potential for a band of heavy rain to set up, which could lead to some flooding concerns.

Uncertainty remains high in the position and intensity of this rain, and across the entire Finger Lakes, rainfall amounts may vary greatly.

The rain should mostly move out for the afternoon, but if it lingers, that will only increase or exacerbate the flooding risk.

Temperatures on Sunday will also depend on how the rain evolves, but will most likely end up somewhere in the 70s.

Monday and Tuesday are looking dry. Monday will have temperatures around 80, while Tuesday will get a jump into the mid 80s ahead of the next cold front.

This front should bring some scattered showers and storms on Wednesday.

Temperatures behind the front should stick near or slightly above 80 degrees with uncertain rain chances late next week and into the following weekend.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu jul 6 | thur, a few late storms low 90 | fri, early, midday storms near 80 | sat, sun and clouds low 80 | sun, am rain and thunder mid 70 | mon, sun and clouds near 80 | tues, sun and clouds mid 80 | wed, scattered t-storms low 80
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.