Rain Expectations
Tropical Storm Ophelia made landfall along the coast of North Carolina this morning and is spreading rain northward through the Mid-Atlantic region.
Clouds out ahead of Ophelia are widespread across the Finger Lakes and will remain as such through today and tomorrow.
The biggest question has been how much rain will make it into our region, and the models are finally coming to a rough consensus on the answer to that question.
For today, rain is generally not expected. A few showers may sneak into Chemung and Tioga counties late this afternoon, closer to sunset. Spotty showers will continue into the evening and overnight, gradually spreading a bit further north. The rain will dissipate as it heads north into dry air.
Sunday morning, another wave of moisture will push towards the region and rain chances will increase slightly.
Intermittent showers will be possible Sunday morning across Chemung, Tioga, and far southern Tompkins and Cortland counties. Further north, a few stray showers and some drizzle will be possible for areas such as Ithaca, Cortland, Bath, Pen Yann, Geneva, Auburn, and Syracuse. Further north and west still, skies will be cloudy with only an isolated stray spit of rain.
Sunday afternoon, intermittent showers will spread north and westward, spreading across Steuben, Schuyler, Tompkins, Chemung, Tioga, and Cortland counties. Stray showers will make it as far north as Geneseo, Canandaigua, Geneva, Auburn, and Syracuse. Further north, it should continue to be primarily dry.
The rain will pull out and dissipate early in the evening, leaving just a few lingering showers in the far southeastern areas. The northern half of the region may even see skies clear out by midnight.
Overall, rain amounts will range from nothing in the north to perhaps a few tenths of an inch across the southeast.
Since our region is on the very edge of Ophelia, our expectations will continue to be highly sensitive to any slight deviations in the path, strength, or location of both Ophelia and high pressure over Canada. It seems unlikely that our weather will deviate towards a rainier solution, but there is certainly a chance that the rain may end up even less than described here. It is also unlikely that the rain will unfold exactly as it looks like it will this morning.
In conclusion, at least some showers are likely on Sunday in the Finger Lakes, particularly across southeastern regions, but there is still wiggle room in the forecast. However, a significant, interruptive rain event is not expected.
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James Hamilton
I like Drew’s conclusion: “a significant, interruptive rain event is not expected.” Ithacans have been calling this sort of mild occasional drizzle “Ithacation,” and often don’t even bother to wear rain-gear or carry umbrellas for such minor humidity.