Partial sunshine returns for a couple of days

finger lakes weather forecast thursday october 12 2023 sun and clouds
Sunshine will make an appearance, mixing with some clouds, both today and tomorrow. Rain is possible this weekend, but there is some uncertainty at play. [Photo by Marcia Klue]

Quiet Late Week Weather

A persistent low pressure system over eastern Canada is dissipating, allowing for a narrow wedge of high pressure to extend into our region from central Canada.

This will shift our weather to a quieter pattern for a couple of days, but low pressure currently developing over Kansas may impact our weekend.

To start off today, there are still some lake effect clouds lingering in the northern half of the region, but skies are starting off clear across the south with some valley fog.

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Skies will be mixed throughout the day with fair weather clouds, some thin clouds, and sunshine. A few stray spits of rain cannot be ruled out as a subtle boundary passes through this afternoon.

Southerly winds ahead of this boundary will blow lightly this morning and will turn to the northwest as the boundary passes this afternoon.

Temperatures will reach their high point of the week with many areas near or slightly above 60 degrees. Higher elevations will stay in the upper 50s, while some of the valley locations in the Southern Tier could see mid 60s.

Skies will remain mostly clear tonight with just some occasional passing thin clouds, especially after midnight. This will take us from the warmest day of the week to the chilliest night of the week, and of the season so far.

Near lake locations and those along and north of I-90 will stay above 40 degrees, but the rest of the area should see mid and upper 30s. Patchy frost will be possible in the colder pockets, especially in the western Southern Tier and portions of Cortland, southeastern Tompkins, and northern Tioga counties.

Friday will also have a mix of sun and various cloud types. During the second half of the afternoon, the clouds may win out over the sun at times. No precipitation is expected for the first and only time this week.

Winds will be out of the north and northwest at 5-10 mph, ensuring temperatures will not be as warm as today. Look for highs in the upper 50s with a few valley and urban areas hitting 60. Higher elevations will stick to the mid 50s.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu oct 12 | thur, sun and clouds near 60 | fri, sun and clouds upper 50 | sat, rain possible low 50 | sun, scattered showers low 50 | mon, scattered showers low 50 | tues, a few showers mid 50 | wed, mostly cloudy mid 50
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Rain Possible This Weekend

The aforementioned low pressure system developing today over Kansas will be over Ohio by Saturday afternoon. Meanwhile, the same high pressure system from central Canada will continue to push dry air toward our region.

This clash of air masses will set up a frontal boundary across Pennsylvania and into southern New England, which the low will travel along. Near and north of this front, widespread rain will develop on Saturday, with a sharp cutoff on its northern edge.

There is some question about how far north into our region the rain makes it. It is possible, perhaps even probably, that areas north of I-90 may end up missing out on much of the rain. It is even possible, though less likely, that the rain only impacts the Southern Tier, or misses our region entirely.

The key will be the position of the front and the strength of the dry air intrusion from the high pressure system. Unfortunately, from a forecasting and planning perspective, the Finger Lakes region is right in the battle zone where anything can still happen.

At this time, I still expect at least some light rain across much of the region Saturday morning and into the afternoon hours. Those with plans outdoors on Saturday should continue to closely monitor the forecast, though.

Scattered showers will be possible behind the main system on Sunday, Monday, and possibly even Tuesday. Like the last few days this week, these days should not be washouts and individual showers will mainly be short-lived. Some breaks of sun will be possible between the showers, but otherwise, it looks rather cloudy and cool.

Temperatures will return to the low 50s, possibly as soon as Saturday if it turns out rainy. Low 50s will persist through at least Monday before pushing towards the mid 50s Tuesday and Wednesday.

Like this week, the weather will dry out and warm slightly late in the week before another potential weather system rolls in for next weekend.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast thu oct 12 | thur, sun and clouds near 60 | fri, sun and clouds upper 50 | sat, rain possible low 50 | sun, scattered showers low 50 | mon, scattered showers low 50 | tues, a few showers mid 50 | wed, mostly cloudy mid 50
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.