Getting warmer despite cloudy skies

finger lakes weather forecast wednesday october 25 2023 cloudy warm showers
Many areas will be at or above 70 degrees for the next 3 days with a few showers and limited sunshine. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

A Few Showers

High pressure has slid to the southeast and extends from the Carolinas out over the Atlantic Ocean.

Meanwhile, an elongated area of low pressure extends from Kansas to areas north of the Great Lakes.

A broad southerly flow of warm air exists between these two systems and will continue to warm our area, even as plentiful clouds from the low pressure area stick around the Finger Lakes for a few days.

Most areas are already locked into the cloud cover this morning. The clouds and southerly flow have temperatures ranging mostly through the 50s and 60s even before sunrise. As warm air continues to be pumped into our region, daytime highs today will reach or exceed 70 degrees for most areas.

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A stray shower or two cannot be ruled out today at almost any time. Most areas will not see any rain during the daytime hours. There will be a better chance for showers tonight, especially between midnight and dawn Thursday, when some widespread but light rain moves through.

Nighttime temperatures will be warm, with lows mostly in the mid and upper 50s.

A few showers may linger after daybreak on Thursday, but most of the day will again turn out dry. Clouds will be plentiful, though there will be a chance for some breaks in the overcast during the afternoon.

Temperatures will be similar to today, with mostly low and mid 70s.

Friday should have a bit more in the way of both shower activity and breaks of sunshine between the showers. Despite the increased chance for rain, most of the time it will still be dry. Temperatures will at least match today and Thursday, if not rise a couple of degrees higher.

Winds all three days will be from the south and southwest with speeds steady at 5-10 mph.

While these temperatures are well above average, they are not quite in record territory. Most of the record highs for this time of the year are in the upper 70s and low 80s.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed oct 25 | wed, mostly cloudy low 70 | thur, an early shower cloudy low 70 | fri, clouds, sun, and showers mid 70 | sat, clouds, sun, and showers mid 60 | sun, showers likely mid 50 | mon, rain early, then showers mid 40 | tues, sun and clouds low 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Unsettled Weekend Brings Cold Next Week

Low pressure will develop over eastern Canada on Saturday while a large high pressure system develops over the western half of the United States.

As the low passes by to our north, there should be an increase in showers on Saturday. Once again, though, it will not be washout by any means, and a good portion of the day may end up dry.

Temperatures will start to retreat slightly, with highs dropping to the mid 60s.

Another low will develop over the Ohio Valley on Sunday and track northeast toward our region. This system will have more rain with it, but most of that should fall to our north and west on Sunday. Showers will be possible, especially in northern and western areas, but it once again does not look like a washout at this time.

By Sunday morning, temperatures will drop to the mid 40s. Highs Sunday afternoon will then only make it to the mid 50s.

A cold front will gradually press southeast through the area Sunday night into Monday. Widespread rain will accompany the front, and depending on its speed, could make Monday more of a washout. Temperatures will probably not move much during the day, sticking to the mid 40s throughout.

The high pressure over the western United States will funnel cold air down through the Midwest and into our region. By Tuesday, high temperatures will struggle into the low 40s with a mix of sun and clouds and possibly a few lake effect showers.

Cold air will stick around into early November with highs unlikely to return to the 50s until maybe next weekend.

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast wed oct 25 | wed, mostly cloudy low 70 | thur, an early shower cloudy low 70 | fri, clouds, sun, and showers mid 70 | sat, clouds, sun, and showers mid 60 | sun, showers likely mid 50 | mon, rain early, then showers mid 40 | tues, sun and clouds low 40
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

2 Responses

  1. Leslie Stoops
    |

    This is a serious question. Are you using ChatGPT to write the weather forecast?

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      No. I would never trust AI to be able to capture the local knowledge and style I rely on in writing my forecasts. If nothing else, my way of doing this is different enough than the mainstream that AI wouldn’t be able to replicate my style. But the biggest clincher in being 100% positive that I am not using AI for this is the response from Chat GPT when I checked by asking it to write a forecast for Ithaca, NY:

      “I’m sorry, but I can’t provide real-time weather forecasts. For the most accurate and up-to-date weather information for Ithaca, NY, I recommend checking a reliable weather website or a weather app on your phone. They can provide you with the current weather conditions, hourly forecasts, and extended forecasts for the area.”