Mid-Week Weather Forecast
A small bubble of high pressure is situated over the Finger Lakes this morning between weather systems out over the Atlantic and to the northwest in Canada.
A stubborn layer of low-level clouds blankets not only our region this morning, but most of the Great Lakes and Ohio River Valley.
While some models erode away at this cloud cover, some of the newer, short-range models are hinting that it may be tough to get much sun out today. In my experience, clouds like this tend to win out, so it very well may end up being another rather cloudy day.
The best chances for some breaks of sun this afternoon will probably be over the eastern half of the region.
Light west winds this morning will turn to the southwest this afternoon. Wind speeds will stay around 5 mph.
Temperatures will mostly be in the upper 30s, though if the sunshine does manage to break through in a significant way, some places may be near 40 degrees.
Any clearing that takes place will quickly fill back in with clouds tonight. Overnight lows will range from the low 30s near Lake Ontario to the mid 20s across the southern half of the area.
Some lake effect snow showers off Lake Erie will pass through the area on Wednesday, particularly in the afternoon and evening. While some more southern areas may see some flurries earlier in the day, the best chance for snow will be along and north of I-90, particularly over the western half of the region.
In general, temperatures will be just a degree or two cooler than today with mid and upper 30s for highs.
A cold front will drop south Wednesday night, picking up the lake effect and bringing widespread snow showers throughout the region. These will taper to some limited Lake Ontario snow south of the lake on Thursday.
In all, between the snow showers Wednesday afternoon, Wednesday night, and Thursday, most places will see under an inch of accumulation.
Thursday will be cooler and windier with northwest winds of 10-15 mph keeping highs in the low 30s.
Watching the Weather Pattern
Friday will be a quiet day and our next shot at some sunshine. It will probably not be a fully sunny day, but a mix of sun and clouds should be expected at this point.
Temperatures will start chilly with lows in the upper 10s and low 20s. While this is cooler than we are used to, it is actually still a touch above the climatological average lows, which are in the low and mid 10s.
Afternoon highs on Friday will be in the low and mid 30s.
Clouds will increase again on Saturday with highs similar to Friday. The increase in clouds will be ahead of a large weather system that will move across the southeastern United States before turning northward.
The big question with this system will be how quickly it turns eastward out to sea. I have kept our snow probabilities for Saturday night into Sunday unchanged, with about a 60 percent chance for under 4 inches and a 40 percent chance of more than 4 inches. Southern areas will have the greater chances for snow.
There is still a very large spread in possible snow amounts, so any forecasts that are already showing exact snow totals for Saturday or Sunday should be dismissed as unaltered model data or hype. These forecasts will likely change, sometimes dramatically, every 6 hours or so, as new model data is ingested and spit back out with little to no human oversight, let alone actual scientific forecasting.
The best chance for snow will be after midnight Saturday night through Sunday morning.
An even more complex weather system will make its way toward our region later Tuesday into Wednesday. The spread on the models is even greater for this system, so there is even less to confidently talk about.
Overall, the chances for heavy precipitation look higher with this second system, but many of the current model solutions show much of it falling as rain. High winds may end up the main concern with this system. Stay tuned.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
Business Sponsors Needed
Do you run a local business in the Finger Lakes? Consider sponsoring Finger Lakes Weather and gain new exposure to a captivated local audience.
Finger Lakes Weather has a limited opportunity for new sponsors, which play a vital role in funding my operations. With annual views of over 600,000, sponsors enjoy unparalleled cost-effective local reach. Sponsorship rates have remained unchanged for years, and many sponsors continue their support year after year.
For more information on the Sponsorship Program and to claim one of the limited number of available spots, check out the Sponsorship page right away!
