Weekend Snow
An area of high pressure will move through the region today, bringing mostly quiet conditions to the area.
There is some light lake effect snow dotting the region this morning as winds shift from the northwest to the west-southwest. This snow should not accumulate much and will taper off by the mid-morning hours.
Skies should eventually turn sunny during the late morning and early afternoon. Thin clouds high in the atmosphere will quickly build in during the mid to late afternoon, though.
Winds will be on the light side today with speeds near or just above 5 mph. It should also feel warmer than yesterday with highs mostly in the low and mid 30s. Some higher elevations may remain in the upper 20s.
Tonight, clouds will thicken and winds will gradually turn calm, then pick back up from the south, then southeast. The northern half of the area should stay in the mid 20s while the southern areas drop to the low 20s.
Saturday will be cloudy and quiet through the morning and midday hours. During the afternoon, snow will move in from southwest to northeast. The steady snow should arrive between 2-4 PM, but some sporadic snow could arrive earlier.
Steady snow will fall at a moderate rate through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. The heaviest will likely fall between 8 PM and Midnight. Lighter, but still steady snow will fall through the overnight and Sunday morning before gradually tapering off.
At the time of publication Friday morning, only Cortland and Tioga counties were under a Winter Storm Watch, as issued by the National Weather Service. However, I am not convinced that those areas will see more snow than the rest of the region, especially if recent indications of a wedge of dry air moving through those areas comes to fruition.
A widespread 4-8 inches looks likely across the Finger Lakes, mostly falling Saturday night. From roughly Dansville to Canandaigua to Newark, and points westward, amounts will be lower, in the 2-4 inch range.
So far, circumstances have prevented me from making a snow map, and that will continue to be the case until this evening. This is later than I prefer to make a snow map, but that is just how things have sorted out this time. On the bright side, this map will probably not have much variation in it. I do still plan to livestream its creation this evening.
Active Weather Pattern
As the snow tapers off slowly on Sunday, accumulations during the daytime hours should be limited to an additional inch or so. Road conditions should improve as crews treat the roads and temperatures climb towards the mid 30s.
The snow should completely end by Sunday evening, with quiet conditions expected through Monday. Temperatures on Monday will start in the mid 20s and rise to the mid 30s. Some sun should poke out between clouds.
Our next weather maker will be a large storm system that will lift northeast from the southern Plains into the Great Lakes. This is a favored track for rain and wind.
Tuesday will start cloudy and with temperatures rising through the 20s Monday night. Much of the daytime hours will remain dry with temperatures reaching the upper 30s.
During Tuesday evening, rain will start to move in, and winds will increase. There is a high likelihood for gusts over 40 mph Tuesday night and some chance for even higher winds. The rain may become heavy at times, though pinpointing where the heaviest will fall this far out is not possible.
Periods of strong winds will continue through Wednesday. The wind Tuesday night will be from the southeast but will shift to the southwest on Wednesday. Particularly strong winds will be likely over the western areas, especially around Rochester.
These southwest winds will bring in cooler air, and rain showers will eventually turn over to snow. Accumulations are expected to be minimal.
Lake effect snow and wind will persist into Thursday, but then winds will shift ahead of another, weaker system that will take a similar western track late in the week.
There are growing signs of a continental weather pattern shift towards colder, stormy weather starting during the middle of January.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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