Multi-hazard Event
A large and powerful storm system impacting much of the eastern half of the nation will move into the Finger Lakes area today.
A large area of precipitation is moving through western Pennsylvania this morning and should press into the Finger Lakes during the mid and late morning hours.
Most of this will start as snow before gradually changing over to rain during the afternoon. Lower elevations will turn over to rain first, while the hilltops remain snow the longest. Some higher elevations could see a couple inches of accumulation, but most areas will see nothing more than a coating or so.
Roads will primarily remain wet as temperatures rise above freezing and toward the mid 30s. The highest chance for snow on the road will be at the very onset of the snow, and over rural, higher elevation areas.
By the late afternoon, most areas should be seeing rain. The rain may come down heavy at times into the evening hours, ending with a band of particularly heavy, but brief, rain during the late evening hours. A few rumbles of thunder cannot be totally ruled out with this band.
Snowmelt will accelerate this evening as temperatures and dewpoints push into the 40s. The combined rainfall and snowmelt could produce the equivalent of 1.5 to 2 inches of rainfall. Heavy downpours will increase the risk for flooding along small streams, poor drainage areas, and in basements.
It will be the wind, however, that is the biggest story today.
Southeast winds will steadily increase through the day, becoming strong during the afternoon and peaking in intensity this evening.
The wind will be highly influenced by topography, with hilltops and areas to the north and west of higher elevations most at risk. Top gusts over 60 mph are likely in these areas, causing tree damage and power outages.
The winds will be from the southeast, which is a less common direction for wind in our region. This may result in stresses on individual tree structures that are less used to strong winds. Combined with potentially saturated soils and the threat for downed trees may be higher than other, similar events.
All of this active weather will calm down rather quickly after midnight as the cold front comes through. Precipitation will largely end, and winds will turn to the southwest and drop significantly. Temperatures will peak in the upper 40s and even low 50s, but will drop back to the upper 30s to near 40 degrees by Wednesday morning.
Weather Remains Very Active
Wednesday will see some blustery southwest winds, but most gusts should remain under 40 mph.
Skies will generally be cloudy with spits of rain and some late snow mixing in. A little late morning sunshine could make a brief appearance.
Temperatures on Wednesday will hover in the upper 30s before dropping as the sun sets.
Thursday will have some scattered snow showers, but accumulations look minimal. Highs will be in the mid 30s.
The next storm system will roll in on Friday. This system looks similar to today’s, but with generally less precipitation and slightly lower winds. Snow may also hang on a bit longer to start, depending on the timing of the precipitation.
Again, winds will be from the southeast, peaking during the evening hours. Gusts over 50 mph are not out of the question.
Behind this system, temperatures will drop and settle into a new pattern with highs generally in the 20s, starting Sunday.
Lake effect snow will crank up over the weekend on west-southwest winds. This may result in some accumulations off Lake Erie across the northern half of the region.
Another storm system will be possible in the Tuesday-Wednesday timeframe, though its path remains highly uncertain at this time. With cold air in place, if this storm impacts the area, it will do so as snow.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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