Mild and breezy today ahead of Wednesday AM cold front

finger lakes weather forecast tuesday april 23 2024 sun clouds dry air brush fires rain cold front
Despite the wet spring, dry, warm winds will increase the brush fire risk today before rain arrives tonight. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Cold Front

Blustery south winds will develop this morning and peak during the afternoon as a cold front approaches from the west.

This front is associated with a small low pressure system that will move across southern Canada today and tomorrow. As this low butts up against the high pressure that brought our sunshine yesterday, the winds will kick up.

The high pressure will continue to try to keep control of our weather. The south winds will bring in warm, dry air, which should prevent anything but a stray rain shower until after sunset.

As temperatures rise into the 60s this afternoon, the dryness of the air will result in relative humidity values around 30%. Despite the wet spring, these dry winds will be able to quickly dry out dead vegetation from last year.

The wind will also be on the stronger side, with frequent gusts over 30 mph. These factors combined will bring a moderate brush fire risk this afternoon.

Clouds will gradually increase and thicken throughout the day. Rain showers will move in after sunset and continue off and on through the night and into Wednesday morning.

Temperatures will drop to the mid and upper 40s by dawn Wednesday morning. The cold front will move through a few hours after sunrise. The temperature, therefore, will remain steady early in the morning, then drop later in the morning.

The coldest part of the day on Wednesday will be in the early to mid afternoon, when upper 30s and low 40s spread across the region. Some of the lingering rain showers may even mix with or turn to some snow before ending early in the afternoon.

A few areas may briefly return to the mid 40s late in the afternoon as skies begin to clear. Unfortunately, it will be a clear, cold night Wednesday night. Most areas will be down into the 20s by Thursday morning, placing early blossoms and vegetation at risk.

Thursday will be sunny and quiet with highs in the upper 40s and low 30s.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tue apr 23 | tues, breezy late showers mid 60 | wed, rain showers before 2 pm low 40 | thur, mostly sunny near 50 | fri, mostly sunny low 60 | sat, a few late showers upper 50 | sun, a few showers a tstorm? mid 70 | mon, a few showers, storms near 80
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Rapid Warming

Thursday night will not be quite as cold, but many areas will still end up below the freezing mark. Pockets of mid 20s are certainly possible with another night of clear skies.

The temperature will make a big rebound during the day on Friday with highs breaking into the low 60s for many areas. Skies will again be mostly sunny, through a few thin clouds will be possible late.

Clouds will increase on Saturday with some late rain showers possible. Rain will continue into Saturday night. Saturday will see much warmer morning lows in the 40s, but afternoon highs will probably be just short of Friday’s, topping out in the upper 50s.

Temperatures will rocket upward from there, though. Despite some cloud cover and a few showers, highs on Sunday should shoot into the mid 70s after lows near 50 degrees. A couple rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out.

Monday will be warmer yet and there is a decent chance that some areas may push toward their first 80-degree day. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may put a limit on how warm it can get, though it is too early to tell for sure.

A cold front is likely on Tuesday, which will bring more rain, if not thunderstorms. Temperatures will depend on the timing of the front but should end up somewhere in the 60s or 70s.

Daily highs at least in the 60s seem likely throughout the rest of next week as well. The weather generally looks quiet during the second half of next week, too.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tue apr 23 | tues, breezy late showers mid 60 | wed, rain showers before 2 pm low 40 | thur, mostly sunny near 50 | fri, mostly sunny low 60 | sat, a few late showers upper 50 | sun, a few showers a tstorm? mid 70 | mon, a few showers, storms near 80
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.