Father’s Day Weekend Weather
A cold front will slip through the Finger Lakes region today with little fanfare, setting up a few days of pleasant weather.
Clouds are in place ahead of the front early this morning, but the radar is mostly clear across the area. Only a few stray spits of rain are expected through the morning before the front clears the area.
This afternoon, winds will turn to the northwest and sunshine will increase as the front pushes off to the southeast.
Temperatures will rise into the mid and upper 70s this afternoon, then drop quickly this evening under clear skies. Overnight lows will make it into the mid 50s.
Saturday will be mostly sunny with just a few stray clouds. It will be cooler with a steady northwest wind. Expect highs around 70 degrees.
Clear skies and calm winds Saturday night will send temperatures into the mid and upper 40s. Northern areas, especially near the lakes, will stay near 50 degrees.
Sunday afternoon will then warm to near 80 degrees as high pressure slides east and southerly flow starts to build back in. The winds on Sunday will be light, though.
Warm air will continue to push in Sunday night with overnight lows only in the mid 60s. From there, the heat will turn on full blast.
Heat Wave
The actual definition of a heat wave is 3 or more consecutive days at or above 90 degrees. Since temperatures vary so much over our region, heat waves are more common in some others than others.
When it comes to historic temperature data, I like to use the observation station on Game Farm Road, outside of Cornell, in Ithaca. This station has a long, consistent history dating back to the 1890s, and is usually a middle of the road value comparable to an average from across the Finger Lakes.
The last true heat wave recorded at this station was in 2018. In all, there were 5 heat waves in the 2010s and 4 in the 2000s (3 of which were in 2002). There have not been 4 consecutive days at or above 90 degrees since 2011, and the last time there were 5 consecutive days was in 1998. And only once since 1955, in 1995, have there been back to back days above 95 degrees.
All of those marks are at least a possibility next week, though that does not mean it is a guarantee.
Regardless of what historical markers we do or do not hit, it will be hot next week at a level we haven’t seen at least in a few years, especially in terms of the duration of the heat.
Monday will be the first hot day, with many areas at or above 90 degrees. Higher elevations, however, should stick to the 80s. There is a small chance for some isolated showers or storms, but it is too uncertain to count on at this point.
Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the peak of the heat wave. Temperatures will soar well into the 90s and some areas may make a run at 100 degrees. Adding in the humidity, heat index values will be dangerously high above 100 degrees.
Thursday is a bit less certain and may not be quite as hot, but as the 4th day of the heat wave, the long-duration of the heat will counteract any slight cooling when considering the hazards of the day.
Nighttime temperatures will not bring much relief, with low and mid 70s Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, and possibly Thursday night.
Toward the end of the week, there may be some chances for stray showers or storms which could provide some relief from the heat. And while temperatures do not look as hot, we may be dealing with highs at least near 90 degrees into next weekend.
Historical Context
While this heat wave has the potential to challenge anything we have seen in the last several decades, the 1910s, 1920s, and especially the 1930’s are littered with such heat waves.
Those three decades alone had twenty instances where there were consecutive days above 95 degrees, including two stretches of four such consecutive days and one stretch of five days in a row above 95 degrees. There were even two instances of three consecutive days above 100 degrees in July 1911 and July 1936.
There is still bound to be some fluctuations in the expected temperatures next week, but it is not too early to start preparing and making plans for the heat. This heat will be hazardous, and an Excessive Heat Warning will likely be needed.
Readers for any length of time know that I do not hype the weather up like other media sources. I take my job of providing accurate, actionable information very seriously. My level of concern for next week has been growing.
In this post, I have tried to balance the seriousness of the upcoming heat with its historical context to get across the point that this heat will be intense but is not something entirely new to our region.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Don’t Miss an Important Update
