Friday, Saturday Forecast
Our hot, humid, and occasionally stormy week will persist into the weekend, though it will not be quite as hot as it was.
The large heat dome that has been over the eastern United States throughout the week is breaking down. Along its northern edge, a weak frontal boundary stretches from New England back through the Great Lakes and into the Midwest.
This boundary will lift north again this weekend as a low develops along it, finally coming through as a cold front Sunday into Monday.
For today, the front is weak enough that it will not serve as much of a trigger for thunderstorms. However, there will likely be some subtle boundaries and impulses of energy moving along the front that will probably result in a couple of cells popping today.
Like yesterday, the best chance for a storm this afternoon will be across the southern half of the region. Most of the day will probably be free of storms, and more areas than not will stay dry.
However, as has been the case all week, any storms that pop will have a chance for damaging winds, frequent to continuous lightning, and heavy rain.
Two storms yesterday in Steuben and Cortland counties produced damaging flash floods. Storms will be slow moving again today and could result in more localized flooding.
Temperatures will not be quite as hot today and much of the area has not had their heat advisories renewed. Steuben, Schuyler, Chemung, Tompkins, and Tioga counties are still under a heat advisory, however. These areas will see highs in the upper 80s and low 90s with heat index values well into the 90s.
Further north, highs will be in the mid and upper 80s. Heat index values will still creep into the 90s but will not quite be high enough to reach advisory criteria.
Tonight, skies will be partly cloudy with some areas of fog possible. Overnight lows will be near or under 70 degrees.
Tomorrow will be much the same as today with little frontal movement. Southern areas will be hotter than the northern areas and will also have a higher chance for thunderstorms. The activity tomorrow should be sparse again, but the same caveats for storm strength and flooding potential remain.
Between now and Saturday night, most areas will probably not see rain, but there will be a few that could see too much.
Cold Front Sunday Night
As low pressure develops along the front and tracks eastward Saturday Night into Sunday, one of the first noticeable changes will be some actual wind.
South and southwest winds will pick up to around 10 mph Saturday night and continue through Sunday. Wind gusts may approach 30 mph at times, with gusts as high as 40 mph along and west of I-390 towards Western NY.
An increase in clouds will accompany the winds, resulting in lows Sunday morning mostly above 70 degrees. Afternoon highs will reach the mid 80s.
Occasional showers are likely on and off throughout Sunday. A few thunderstorms will also be possible with a potential for stronger wind gusts.
The front itself will likely come through Sunday night, sending temperatures to the mid 60s by Monday morning. On and off showers and a few storms will continue on Monday with highs in the mid 70s.
While rain will be possible at almost any time Sunday and Monday, neither day looks like a complete washout, and there is a chance a few areas could even sneak through the entire weekend without appreciable rainfall.
Temperatures will bounce back for Tuesday and Wednesday with highs in the mid 80s both days. Tuesday will be sunny, but Wednesday will see more thunderstorms as a cold front rumbles through.
This front will have some power behind it, with highs in the 70s late next week and possibly into the weekend. Overnight lows may even make it into the 50s for a couple of nights.
Overall, cooler weather may be hard to come by though. In their July outlook published yesterday, the Climate Prediction Center has very high chances for above average temperatures in July across the northeastern United States.
More Information:
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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