Fair, mild weekend weather ahead of a chilly week to follow

finger lakes weather forecast friday october 4 2024 early autumn colors show on trees in the background with a golden and green field in the foreground with a mix of blue sky and white clouds above.
Most of the rain from two cold fronts this weekend will fall during the evening hours of Friday and Sunday. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Weekend Weather Forecast

A pair of cold fronts will move through the region over the next couple of days.

After a quiet day with a mix of sun and clouds, the first front will move through quickly Friday evening.

A few scattered showers will accompany the front, arriving around sunset and continuing roughly until around midnight.

Light southerly winds ahead of the front will help temperatures into the low and mid 70s this afternoon.

Behind the front, skies will begin to clear prior to sunrise, leading to Saturday morning lows in the upper 40s and low 50s.

Saturday will be mostly sunny, but a northwest wind slightly over 5 mph will hold temperatures in check. Expect highs in the mid 60s, with a few warmer urban areas and a few cooler higher elevations.

Saturday evening will have clear skies and calm winds, allowing temperatures to fall quickly. However, before sunrise, some clouds will begin to move in and winds will pick back up from the southeast.

While acting to limit the cold, it will still drop down to the low and mid 40s for most areas, but with some pockets in the 30s across Steuben, Tioga, Tompkins, and especially Cortland counties.

Southerly winds will turn blustery Sunday with speeds over 10 mph and gusts approaching 30 mph. These winds will take the chilly start and force temperatures up to the low 70s.

Late in the day, the second front will move in with some late afternoon showers and thunderstorms. These will continue into the evening hours before tapering off overnight. No severe weather is expected.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast fri oct 4 | fri, sun clouds, late showers mid 70 | sat, mostly sunny mid 60 | sun, sun, clouds, late storms low 70 | mon, scattered showers near 60 | tues, scattered showers upper 50 | wed, scattered showers mid 50 | thur, sun and clouds mid 50
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Deep Autumn Weather

Next week’s weather will not be quite like anything we have seen since the Springtime and will definitely look and feel like we are deep into Autumn.

Scattered showers will be a possibility Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday. The extent of these showers is uncertain at this time.

Individual batches of showers will be triggered by small disturbances passing through the atmosphere and potentially enhanced by lake effect processes.

Steady northwest winds will blow on Monday with speeds around 10 mph. Temperatures will start the day around 50, but will only rise to the upper 50s and low 60s.

Clouds should mainly hold temperatures in the 40s Monday night, though some pockets may slip into the 30s. More clearing could mean colder temperatures. High temperatures on Tuesday will not reach 60 degrees in most places.

Tuesday night may be the first chance for areas of widespread frost as broad swaths of the southern half of the region dip into the 30s. Lakeshores and the typically warmer north should stay near or above 40 degrees. Again, how the cloud cover plays out will ultimately play a large role in the frost risk.

Wednesday will be cooler yet with highs only making it into the mid 50s. Wednesday night has the potential to be even colder as high pressure builds in. If clouds dissipate completely, frost may become a widespread occurrence.

Thursday looks dry with sunshine returning, but highs will stick to the 50s once again. The last time Ithaca had 3 or more days with highs under 60 degrees was May 11-14th.

The weather becomes very uncertain for the end of next week and next weekend. There may be a brief bump up in temperature, but the spread of possibilities showing on the models is very large, resulting in next to no confidence in any given scenario.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast fri oct 4 | fri, sun clouds, late showers mid 70 | sat, mostly sunny mid 60 | sun, sun, clouds, late storms low 70 | mon, scattered showers near 60 | tues, scattered showers upper 50 | wed, scattered showers mid 50 | thur, sun and clouds mid 50
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.