Mild first half of the week, but cold air looms

finger lakes weather forecast monday december 16 2024 grey clouds with a few brighter thin spots over a lightly snow covered meadow with bushes and trees.
Temperatures will rise into the 40s today and remain there overnight and into Tuesday with some evening rain. A cold, potentially snowy weekend awaits. [Photo by Gwen Moshier]

Early Week Weather

An area of mixed precipitation last night was associated with a broad push of warmer air, which will build into the area today.

A steady south wind will blow today with speeds of 10-15 mph, gradually increasing late in the day. Wind gusts will stay under 30 mph until late in the afternoon, when some of the hills south of Canandaigua and Syracuse start to see gusts at or over 30 mph.

Afternoon highs will climb into the mid 40s. A few upper 40s are possible around Rochester, the Genesee Valley, and possibly Syracuse.

Cloud cover will remain plentiful throughout the day, though there may be a few thin spots here and there. No additional precipitation is expected until very late in the afternoon.

Rain showers will become widespread shortly after sunset and continue throughout the evening. Wind speeds will increase further as well, coming in at 15-20 mph and locally higher in the aforementioned hilltops.

The rain should end by midnight and winds will turn more southwesterly with a decrease in wind speed. Temperatures overnight will generally stick to the mid 40s, though some pockets of low 40s will be possible from time to time.

Temperatures will continue to mostly hold steady in the mid 40s for much of Tuesday before finally dropping as sunset approaches.

Tuesday will be a cloudy day with little more than some spits of drizzle or sporadic rain showers. Winds will be from the southwest into the afternoon, then will turn more westerly. It will not be quite as windy as today, but still a bit breezy.

A few stray showers or flurries will be possible Tuesday night, especially across the northern areas. Overnight lows will be in the low and mid 30s.

Wednesday will get back to near 40 degrees, but a weather system late in the day will bring rain and snow showers to the area.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast mon dec 16 | mon, cloudy evening rain mid 40 | tues, cloudy a stray shower mid 40 | wed, late rain and snow near 40 | thur, a few am flurries mid 30 | fri, periods of light snow low 30 | sat, breezy lake effect snow near 20 | sun, scattered lake snows upper 10
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Falling Temperatures

A few lake effect flurries will be possible Thursday morning on northwest winds in the wake of Wednesday’s system. There may be a few breaks of afternoon sun as the lake effect dissipates, but another system will be incoming, so the window for sunshine is small.

Temperatures on Thursday will be rather typical with a morning low around 30 degrees and an afternoon high in the mid 30s.

A cold front will move through the area on Friday with areas of snow and perhaps some squally weather. A couple inches of snow may be possible.

Temperatures will start Friday in the mid 20s with afternoon highs in the low 30s.

Winds may be light on Friday as low pressure moves through but will pick up substantially from the northwest Friday night into Saturday. Wind speeds will be near 15 mph with gusts around 30 mph.

Cold air will pour into the region, holding temperatures around 20 degrees throughout Saturday.

A spray of lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario will persist throughout the day, leading to some moderate to heavy accumulations. Wayne, Cayuga, Onondaga, and northern Cortland County are the target areas for the heaviest snows at this point, but this could shift over the coming days.

Lake snows will continue into Sunday but should gradually wind down. Wind speeds will be less as well.

Sunday will be quite cold with morning lows well into the 0s and afternoon highs stuck in the 10s.

Temperatures will just as quickly moderate early next week, with highs back in the 30s by Tuesday and well into the 30s on Christmas Day.

Still, as long as the lake effect pans out this weekend, many areas will likely end up with a White Christmas with temperatures not hitting the 40s until after Christmas.

More Information:

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finger lakes weather 7-day forecast mon dec 16 | mon, cloudy evening rain mid 40 | tues, cloudy a stray shower mid 40 | wed, late rain and snow near 40 | thur, a few am flurries mid 30 | fri, periods of light snow low 30 | sat, breezy lake effect snow near 20 | sun, scattered lake snows upper 10
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.