Warm air begins to move in today, peaks with rain and wind on Wednesday

finger lakes weather forecast a large bare tree reaches its branches into the left side of the image beside a field with nubbs of last year's harvested corn stalks poking through a layer of snow. Dark clouds spread across the sky overhead.
A few spits of mixed precipitation and rain today will signal an influx of warmer air peaking tomorrow with areas of rain and gusty winds. [Photo by Helen Heizyk]

Early March Thaw

A push of warmer air is working into the Finger Lakes this morning and will stick around through Wednesday night.

As the warmer air pushes in, there are some brief areas of light mixed precipitation this morning. Snow, sleet, and rain are all possible, but will not cause any travel disruptions.

A few spits of rain will be possible throughout the day as well, but most areas will be dry most of the time.

Skies will remain cloudy, though a little sun may work into the Southern Tier around sunset. Clearing skies will overspread the rest of the region for a short time this evening before more clouds build in by midnight.

South winds will be steady today but not too strong. Wind speeds will be around 10 mph with top gusts around 20 mph.

Afternoon highs will push well into the 40s with a few 50 possible across the western Finger Lakes and Southern Tier.

Evening temperatures will drop the upper 30s and low 40s but will increase after midnight. Most areas should start Wednesday in the mid 40s.

Southerly winds will increase slightly tonight but more substantially on Wednesday. Through the daytime hours tomorrow, wind gusts at lower elevations will be 35-45 mph while higher elevations may gust to 50 mph.

Scattered rain showers are likely Wednesday morning, with more substantial areas of rain during the afternoon and evening. There may even be a couple rumbles of thunder or some gusty, thundery downpours.

High temperatures on Wednesday will mainly be in the low and mid 50s, but a few upper 50s are not out of the question.

Winds will be much lighter Wednesday night as they turn to the southwest. Nighttime temperatures will fall to near 40 degrees by Thursday morning.

finger lakes weather 7-day forecast tue mar 4 | tues, cloudy a few showers upper 40 | wed, windy periods of rain mid 50 | thur, wind and snow, mostly late mid 30 | fri, windy a few snow showers near 40 | sat, windy a few snow showers low 30 | sun, cloudy maybe a flurry mid 30 | mon, a few rain, snow showers upper 30
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected. Click to enlarge.

Cooler, But Not Cold

Temperatures may hold steady around 40 degrees for a time Thursday morning. Winds will shift again by the afternoon, turning to the west and increasing again.

Winds will peak during the afternoon and early evening with another round of gusts over 40 mph likely.

Afternoon temperatures will fall with this wind shift with most areas ending up in the mid 30s. There may be some areas of snow, especially in the northern and western areas, but how much of this impacts our region is still a bit uncertain.

A few lake effect snow showers will be possible Thursday night into early Friday, but most of this activity will probably stay north of the Finger Lakes.

Blustery winds will continue with west and northwest gusts to 35 mph on Friday. Despite this, afternoon highs should still end up around 40 degrees.

Saturday will be yet another windy day with northwest gusts around 40 mph. Once again, a few snow showers may be possible, but they look mostly insignificant. Temperatures will take a dip with highs in the low 30s.

The wind will finally taper off on Sunday. Skies will be mostly cloudy. A spit or rain or snow cannot be ruled out. Highs will be in the mid 30s after starting the day near 20 degrees.

Monday has a better chance for a few rain or snow showers with highs adding a few more degrees to the upper 30s.

Another warm up is likely for the middle of next week, but just how warm it gets will depend on the path of a large weather system. There is a very high chance for at least 50s, but 60s are certainly not out of the question either.

Like this week’s warm up, the warm weather will only last for a day or two before temperatures get knocked back, though how far back is very uncertain and it may remain on the milder side of things.

More Information:

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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

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