End of the Heat Wave
Heat advisories from the National Weather Service are in effect again today as hot and humid weather continues.
Most areas will not be quite as hot as yesterday, but only by a marginal amount. Most areas will still break into the 90s and some will see heat index values at or above 100 degrees.
Any benefit of the ever so slightly less intensity of the heat is likely offset by the accumulation of heat stress after another very warm overnight.
Skies are mostly clear early this morning, but fair weather clouds will bubble up during the daytime heating cycle. A few stray showers and storms cannot be ruled out during the mid to late afternoon and into the early evening.
A subtle but important frontal boundary will be present, but its ability to force precipitation development will be minimal. Still, with all this thermal energy in the atmosphere, anything that does pop up could become briefly severe with strong winds the primary threat.
Most areas will not see rain today, though.
Temperatures will remain near or above 70 degrees for many tonight, though the number of places dipping into the upper 60s will increase.
The front will slowly move south through the area Wednesday morning, leading to a few more pop up showers and storms. The southern half of the region will be most prone to these, mainly from the mid morning through the early afternoon.
Eventually, a northwest wind will settle in. Temperatures will peak in the mid 80s during the early to mid afternoon and should dip a couple of degrees before the afternoon is done. Humidity levels will dip as well, with dewpoints slowly retreating into the 60s.
Wednesday night will see temperatures in the mid 60s, while Thursday will have highs mainly under 80 degrees, though it will be close.
Thursday perhaps has the best chance for rain over these next three days, though the details of how widespread showers and storms may become is uncertain at this time.
Summery Weekend
Temperatures will remain warm and humidity will make it feel muggy through the close of the week, the weekend, and into next week.
This classic summertime weather will see highs gradually warming, with highs going from near 80 degrees on Friday to the mid and upper 80s Sunday and Monday.
Scattered showers and storms are possible both Friday and Saturday. Once again, the details of how widespread the storms may become, as well as the favored times and areas, remain too uncertain to pinpoint at this stage.
Confidence becomes lower by Sunday, but there are indications that it may turn out to be a dry day.
Scattered showers will likely be back on Monday, continuing into early Tuesday as a cold front moves through. Temperatures will get reset to the upper 70s behind the front for the middle and end of next week.
Once that front moves through, rain chances will drop for the latter part of next week, which will be good news for 4th of July celebrations and fireworks displays if that trend can hold steady and true.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
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This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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Maryrose Livingston
Hi Drew, I wonder if you will weigh in on the crazy storm system that blew in early this past Sunday? I know the largest part of the system was outside your forecast area, but we here in Cortland County got hit pretty hard and had no advance warning. I haven’t seen any of the regional meteorologists address this surpise storm system, and we are amongst the MANY farmers who were caught with hay mowed anticipating a dry day for baling. Is this a sign of climate change increasing forecast difficulties? I’d appreciate your wisdom about how such a significant system didn’t show up in any forecasts in the region. Thanks!
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
Hi Maryrose. I’m sorry to hear about your hay- I know how difficult it has been for farmers this year. Sunday morning was a very complex set up and event. I actually saw and talked about the possibility as early as Tuesday last week and had scattered AM storms in my 7-day forecast graphic Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday. By Friday and Saturday, is was looking more likely that the storms would stay east of the region, but I continued to stress the low confidence. Ultimately, I said it wasn’t going to storm in our area, and it did, so that was a miss on my part.
What ended up happening was quite unique. As the possible storm complex did indeed come south from Canada, it sent out cool air as an outflow boundary. Given the north to south movement of the complex, this acted as a mini-cold front heading east to west toward the I-81 region. At the same time, the hot and humid air was pushing in from the west, setting up a narrow but intense boundary that fed the storms and kept causing them to build further and further westward. I did see this on some models a couple days ahead of time, but actually dismissed it as model noise because it was so abnormal looking.
I think this is a lesson not in changing climates, but in the distance meteorology still has to go, especially with thunderstorm forecasting. It feels like every forecast lately, I am having to stress uncertainty because the models, whether run by NOAA, the EU, or independent sources such as universities, just aren’t able to handle the thunderstorm environments well.
On a personal note, I admit I’ve been avoiding the subject. I have some very complex emotions I am trying to sort through with this storm complex, especially related to the fatalities that occurred in Oneida County. I have a surprisingly small degree of separation from the twin girls that were killed (they were good friends of one of my friend’s daughter) and it has made my heart very heavy. I did not know them in any way, but it is such a tragedy…