High Pressure Dominates
The high pressure system we have been tracking most of the week as it moved across Canada and into New England is centered near New York City Friday morning.
Over the weekend, the high will drift a bit further south toward the Mid-Atlantic coast before eventually moving out to sea as it weakens early next week.
Until that happens, it will continue to be a dominating force on our weather with sunshine and warming temperatures.
Overall, skies will be mostly sunny for most of the weekend. Friday and Sunday in particular will have little to no cloud cover, while Saturday and Monday will see some occasional passing thin clouds. At most, these clouds may filter a little of the sunshine for some brief periods.
Without any cloud cover, of course, rain will be unheard of.
South and southwest winds will be in place throughout the weekend with speeds staying under 10 mph.
Temperatures will soar, with mid and upper 70s on Friday, highs around 80 degrees on Saturday, and many areas sneaking above 80 degrees Sunday and Monday.
How often does it reach the 80s in October? Based on Ithaca’s lengthy climate history, about 50% of the time. Ithaca even had two years where it reached 90 degrees—1953 and 1927.
With the current drought, daily relative humidity values under 40 or even 30 percent, warm temperatures, and vegetations beginning its seasonal die-off, the risk for brushfires is increasing once again.
A statewide burn ban has been issued until at least October 15th. The NYSDEC has the fire danger at HIGH for most of the region, with the southeastern Finger Lakes classified as MODERATE.
A Shot of Rain, Cooler Air
A strong cold front will move toward the region on Tuesday, likely arriving late in the afternoon with a band of rain.
Widespread rain should continue into the overnight, but now looks as though it will clear out of the region by Wednesday morning.
This rain is needed but will be far from providing any long-term drought relief. Early estimates of the amounts show around a half inch falling for most areas.
Temperatures on Tuesday will be warm, but not quite as hot as the weekend, thanks to increasing clouds. Look for highs ranging through the 70s.
Southwest winds will increase on Tuesday ahead of the front with speeds of 10-15 mph. A few gusts may eclipse the 30 mph mark.
After the rain moves out Tuesday night, skies should clear for Wednesday and Thursday. Winds will be from the north on Wednesday at around 10 mph. Those will swing around to the southeast by Thursday morning.
These two days will be some of the coolest we have seen in some time, with highs around or even below 60 degrees.
There will be another chance for frost Wednesday night, but it is too uncertain at this point to count on, especially with winds expected to turn toward the southeast. Keep an eye on the forecast if you have frost sensitive plants.
Temperatures look a bit more seasonable in the long-term as we head into the middle of October, but there are large variations on the models in the day-to-day. Rainfall, too, is quite variable, so it is uncertain whether we will see any significant drought relief or more generally dry weather.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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