Stray Showers
A narrow wedge of high pressure built into the Finger Lakes last evening but will only last through the morning hours.
Skies are mostly clear across the region to start today. A south wind has taken hold ahead of a cold front that will arrive late today.
The southerly wind has kept temperatures from getting too cold this morning and will give us our warmest afternoon of the week.
Outside of some higher elevations, highs will reach the low and mid 60s this afternoon.
Clouds will increase from west to east this afternoon and will be accompanied by a few scattered showers. Not all areas will see rain this afternoon, though many should see at least a little. Much of the rain that falls will be light and short-lived. Rain amounts will scarcely be measurable.
Winds will be breezy, peaking during the middle of the day with speeds slightly over 10 mph. Top gusts will be around 25 mph.
The parent low pressure responsible for the cold front will lift north of the Upper Great Lakes into Canada. The cold front will move through overnight, setting us up for a cool southwesterly flow on Wednesday.
There will be some additional scattered showers overnight and into Wednesday morning. Lake effect rain will then take over for the afternoon and evening, mainly staying over Western New York with just some occasional spill-over showers into the northern and western Finger Lakes.
Temperatures Wednesday morning will range from the upper 30s in the Southern Tier to the mid 40s across the northern half of the region.
Afternoon highs will mainly be from 50-55 degrees. Areas west of I-390 will stay in the 40s, and a few of the higher elevations south of Syracuse may not quite make it to 50 degrees, either.
The wind will once again be blustery on Wednesday with speeds of 10-15 mph. Top gusts should be 25-30 mph with stronger winds west of I-390.
There will be little change Wednesday night with lake effect mainly west of the area, but shifting south. Overnight lows will be near or above 40 for much of the Finger Lakes with some 30s in the Southern Tier.
Late Week and Weekend Weather
A small disturbance may bring an increase in scattered showers on Thursday, but it once again should not be a washout by any means, except perhaps west of I-390.
Winds will be more westerly, but still blustery with speeds over 10 mph and occasional gusts over 25 mph.
Afternoon highs will range from the mid 50s along and north of the Thruway with low 50s and higher elevation upper 40s to the south. Allegany and Wyoming counties, where clouds are thicker and rain more persistent, will see highs in the mid 40s.
Friday will have some lighter winds with speeds around 10 mph. The wind direction will shift to the northwest behind Thursday’s small system, leading to slightly cooler temperatures.
Most areas will start the day in the mid and upper 30s, while afternoon highs will only get a couple degrees above 50 degrees in lower elevations. Most of the hilly areas will be in the upper 40s, with mid 40s again in the western Southern Tier.
Once again, a few stray showers will be possible, especially as winds turn more northwesterly and disorganized, sporadic lake effect from Lake Ontario moves south into the region.
Saturday and Sunday may both have a few stray lake effect rain showers during the morning hours. The afternoons are expected to be dry with sun and clouds.
Temperatures both weekend days will start ranging through the 30s with afternoon highs slightly above 50 degrees. Higher elevations, especially across the eastern Finger Lakes, will not reach 50 degrees.
High pressure should keep the weather quiet for the first part of next week, but then a complex pattern will set up late in the week with some models hinting at the possibility of some strong weather.
I’ll be keeping an eye on this over the next week, but be wary of hype—this sort of setup is prime for premature drama.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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