Late Week Weather
The every-other day pattern of weather systems passing through the region will continue through the late week and weekend periods.
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Today is an “off” day between systems, with less active weather. Less is the key word, as it will be anything but a sunny, mild day, though there will be a general calming down as the day goes on.
For this morning, scattered lake effect rain showers dot the northern and eastern halves of the region. There may be a few wet snowflakes mixing in over higher elevations, but in general, temperatures are just a touch too warm for snow.
Precipitation should dissipate as we get into the midday and afternoon hours, but clouds will hold on. There may be a few brief breaks of sun here and there, especially in the afternoon, but clouds will generally rule the sky today.
Winds will be out of the northwest and will remain blustery through the early afternoon. Wind speeds may approach 20 mph with gusts of 30 to 40 mph. Over the course of the afternoon, however, the wind speeds will drop.
In summary, the weather will go from windy with spotty showers this morning, to merely breezy and cloudy this afternoon.
Temperatures will be chilly, with highs in the mid 40s.
Just as the clouds start to break up more substantially late today and tonight, new clouds ahead of the next weather maker will quickly build in. Mostly cloudy skies are therefore expected tonight, with the best chance for some clearing coming in the early evening.
It will remain dry overnight, and winds will be light as they turn southerly. Overnight lows will be in the mid 30s only right along the lake shores, with low 30s further inland. Upper 20s will be widespread through the Southern Tier with some mid 20s in and around Cortland County.
South winds will increase Friday morning, peaking during the afternoon hours with another round of 30 to 40 mph gusts.
Rain will move from west to east during the early to mid afternoon with showers lingering until after sunset. The rain should not be overly heavy, with most areas seeing less than a quarter inch of precipitation.
High temperatures on Friday will bounce back thanks to the south winds with highs in the low and mid 50s throughout the region.
Wintery Preview on the Way
Saturday will be another quieter day between systems. Unlike today, winds will be lighter, coming from the northwest with maximum gusts of just 20 to 25 mph.
Skies will once again be cloudy, but no more than a stray spit of rain is expected.
Temperatures will vary across the region, with some mid 50s hanging on in the Southern Tier, but only mid 40s in some of the higher elevations. Much of the region should end up within a couple degrees of 50.
The next system will move through the area on Sunday, but there are still some differences in the path and evolution of this system that have me at least a little cautious.
By far and away, the most likely scenario is low pressure passing to our west or overhead. Either way, rain will pass through the area, likely coming off and on through the day but especially during the morning. Temperatures will hold steady or rise compared to Saturday.
However, there is a small but stubbornly consistent group of models that has a further east scenario, which could introduce snow at least on the backside of the low Sunday evening, if not sooner.
When digging into this a bit further, I noticed less consistency in the path of the low among the warmer, rainy models than I expected. So, while I do not think it will snow on Sunday, or even come particularly close to doing so, I am not ready to totally discount the outlier possibility.
The path of the low will also determine what sort of winds we see on Sunday, but there may be another period of blustery winds.
No matter the path of the low, it should redevelop along the New England coast on Monday and lift into eastern Canada on Tuesday, possibly even looping back to the west a bit after it moves inland.
At a minimum, this pattern will push some wintry cold air into the area with highs Monday and Tuesday only in the 30s. Overnight temperatures Monday night will be well down into the 20s.
Lake effect snow showers are expected at a minimum, and wrap around moisture on the backside of the coastal low may introduce a more widespread snow to the area. Accumulations look light, but I do think many areas will see their first snow by Tuesday.
Temperatures will return to the 40s for Wednesday and possibly Thursday before another system knocks them back toward the 30s late next week. Occasionally gusty winds and bouts of rain and snow showers will continue to be possible as well.
The spread on the models is large from next weekend into the following week, meaning uncertainty is high, but the general trend is for warmer temperatures at least getting back toward 50 degrees.
More Information:
» Finger Lakes Weather Radar
» Zip Code Forecasts
» Get the FLX Weather Mobile App
This graphic represents an average over the entire Finger Lakes region. Localized variations should be expected.
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