Wind and lake effect snow today will linger into Thursday with a few more snow showers and a slight dip in temperature. A slow but steady climb in temperatures is expected thereafter with at least a shot at approaching 40 degrees early next week.
Wednesday
What: Areas of lake effect snow, gusty winds
Impacts: Minor during the daytime, Low/Moderate at night
A spray of lake effect snow will be with us much of the day. Late this afternoon and this evening, embedded squalls are also possible. Snow accumulations and road conditions will vary greatly by time and location, with higher elevations at night seeing the greatest impacts. Wind gusts over 30 mph will cause blowing and drifting with temperatures staying mostly steady around 30 degrees.
» For a more detailed breakdown of the weather today and tonight, including a snow accumulation map, please see the Wednesday Weather Planner.
Thursday
What: Lingering lake effect snow
Where: Especially Seneca, southern Cayuga, and Tompkins Counties, including downwind of Cayuga Lake
Impacts: Locally moderate early, but minor overall
Lake effect snow will continue from the overnight, but will undergo a weakening and narrowing trend during the morning hours. A couple of additional inches may be possible, especially in the higher elevations of southeastern Cayuga County, and potentially south-southeast of Cayuga Lake, where a narrow band of Cayuga Lake Effect may be ongoing. Minor snow showers may linger well into the afternoon in these areas, but should end by evening.
Elsewhere, morning flurries will give way to some breaks of sun in the afternoon. Winds will not be as strong as Wednesday, but temperatures will be a bit cooler with highs in the mid 20s.
Friday
What: Sun and clouds
Impacts: None
A quiet, dry day is expected. Some sun will be possible, especially through the first half of the day. A gradual increase in cloud later on will be possible as a small weather system approaches from the north. A light southwest wind will blow ahead of that system, nudging afternoon highs to around 30 degrees after a cool start to the day in the 10s.
Friday Night through Early Saturday
What: Snow showers
Where: Mostly the northern and eastern halves of the region
Impacts: Minor
A quick moving weather system will drop southeast across the region Friday night. Snow showers will move through the northern, then eastern Finger Lakes. A little lake effect snow southeast of Lake Ontario across Wayne, Cayuga, Onondaga, and northern Cortland counties may follow Saturday morning. Snow accumulation should be limited to a Trace to 2 inches with the highest amounts likely resulting from the lake effect. Temperatures will remain in the upper 20s Friday night.
Later Saturday through Sunday
What: Quiet, a little sun, more clouds
Impacts: None
Winds will shift back to the southwest Saturday afternoon and evening, ending any lake effect snow and bringing some breaks to the clouds. The at least partial clearing Saturday night will allow temperatures to fall to around 20 degrees.
Clouds will increase and thicken on Sunday with winds turning to the southeast. Afternoon highs should be in the mid 30s for many areas.
Sunday Night through early Monday
What: Highly uncertain coastal low
Impacts: Unknown
Weather models continue to be split and inconsistent with the development of a coastal low Sunday night into early Monday. Among the models that do show this development, there is a further split between a total miss, a glancing shot of snow, and heavier snow for at least the southeastern Finger Lakes.
The most likely scenario remains a near or total miss with few impacts. The high-end snow event chances have ticked up a bit though, but only to around 10%… there does not seem to be much middle ground on the models, making this seem more like an all or nothing type set up.
Be highly skeptical of any calls for a bit storm at this point and definitely of any projected snow amounts. This remains a wait and see situation.
Next Week
Regardless of how Sunday night and early Monday shake out, the rest of the first half of next week looks quiet with temperatures continuing their climb. Monday’s temperatures will be influenced by whatever does or does not develop Sunday night. Currently, I went slightly conservative in the mid 30s, but it could be a bit warmer if the coastal low is weaker, further south, or doesn’t ever come together. Tuesday will have a better shot at upper 30s and low 40s for highs.
Forecast confidence starts to go down Wednesday, and by late next week and next weekend, the models are way too much of a mess to make any firm conclusions, showing a literal 60 degree spread of possibilities in the temperature fields…. though colder air looks a bit more favored than warm.
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