A warm front slowly making its way through the region today will bring in a prolonged period of warm weather with highs in the 60s likely on Saturday and again early next week.
Thursday
What: Increasing rain
Impacts: Locally heavy rain, Locally dense fog late
Rain showers will spread from south to north this morning, then transition over to steady rainfall for the afternoon. Pockets of heavy rain are possible, with an inch or more of rain expected across the Southern Tier. The rain will continue into the early evening, then taper back off to scattered showers overnight. Areas of fog may develop at times, especially after sunset.
Winds will be light today with highs ranging from the mid 40s in the Southern Tier to mid 30s near Lake Ontario around Rochester, where a little mixed precipitation may be possible.
» For more details on today’s weather, check the Thursday Weather Planner post from last evening.
Friday
What: Areas of fog, drizzle, and a few showers
Impacts: Locally dense fog
Friday looks like a generally cloudy day with a few showers, drizzle, and some areas of dense fog, especially in the morning. Daytime winds will be light from the southeast. Warm air will start to enter into the western half of the region, with highs in the upper 50s for the Genesee Valley and low 50s most areas around and west of Seneca Lake. To the east, there will be upper 40s around Cayuga Lake and mid 40s for most other areas.
A few more showers will be possible Friday night as winds turn more southerly and increase. A few gusts over 30 mph will be possible. Temperatures will drop at first during the evening, then rise again overnight. Mid 50s are likely by Saturday morning from Dansville to Canandaigua to Rochester, ranging down all the way to some lingering low 40s in the far southeastern Finger Lakes.
Saturday
What: Limited sunshine. Showers and a few thunderstorms late.
Impacts: A gusty thunderstorm is possible.
Temperatures should make it into the 60s on Saturday throughout the region, except perhaps a few higher elevations in the far eastern Finger Lakes. Some areas may make it to or exceed 65 degrees, especially across the northern half of the region.
Sunshine will be limited to some scattered breaks in the clouds, especially in the morning and midday. An approaching cold front will bring showers and a few thunderstorms in later in the afternoon and into the evening. A stronger, blustery storm cannot be ruled out. Rain should end sometime around midnight.
Sunday
What: Morning clouds, afternoon sun
Behind Saturday night’s cold front, Sunday will be notably cooler than Saturday or the days that follow. However, it will still be mild with highs in the low 50s. Clouds will be plentiful early on in the day, but sunshine should increase during the middle of the day with mostly clear skies late.
Monday and Tuesday
What: Sunny, warm
Impacts: Some brush fire risk.
Warm air will quickly return with highs in the 60s likely Monday and Tuesday. Unlike Saturday, these days are expected to be sunny and dry. In fact, on Monday in particular, relative humidity values in the afternoon may drop to near or below 30%. This will quickly dry out dead vegetation from last season and would result at least some brush fire risk, aided by steady southwest winds but mitigated by the recent snowmelt and rainfall.
Wednesday
What: Showers, thunderstorms?
Impacts: Last warm day
Wednesday will likely be the final day of this first taste of spring. A cold front will come through at some point with showers and perhaps a round of thunderstorms. Depending on the timing of the front, temperatures will still have a good shot at reaching the 60s. If the front comes through during the day, there could be a rapid temperature crash with the frontal passage.
Late Next Week and Beyond
Temperatures will return to a chilly state with daily highs in the 20s and 30s likely. Snow will also likely return to the area, though it is of course far too early to identify any specific threats. Winter is certainly not over in our region.
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