The majority of the region will stray dry on Wednesday, but showers and storms will be likely Thursday and Friday. Stray showers will persist through the weekend and into early next week, but at least that rain will be spotty and light. It will be warm and muggy through the weekend until a cold front sometime around next Tuesday ushers in a cooler, less humid pattern.
Published Wednesday, August 5
Wednesday
What: Sun and clouds. Maybe a late shower or storm.
Some cloudiness from the south has pushed into the southeastern Finger Lakes this morning. While unlikely, a stray spit of rain cannot be totally ruled out from these clouds through the early afternoon. Further northwest, sunshine will be more abundant. There will be a second small chance for a stray shower or storm during the late afternoon across the western half of the region, but most of this is expected to be over western New York and not the Finger Lakes.
South winds will be in place on today with speeds no higher than 10 mph. Humidity will increase with mid 60s dewpoints, and afternoon highs will push toward the mid 80s. Overnight lows will be around 70 degrees with persistent but light south winds and at least some cloud cover. A stray shower cannot be ruled out overnight, either.
Thursday
What: Scattered showers and storms.
The morning and early afternoon hours should be mostly dry with nothing more than a brief, stray shower in an isolated location or two. Showers and thunderstorms should develop quickly during the mid to late afternoon along a southwest to northeast line that should nearly split the region in two. These showers and storms will then press east. Therefore, the northwestern half of the region may not see much rain tomorrow, but most areas to the southeast will. The exact dividing line is uncertain.
Any storms will be capable of torrential downpours and maybe a few stronger wind gusts. The storms will move east before sunset and die off shortly thereafter.
It will be humid with dewpoints around 70 degrees. Afternoon highs should make it into the mid 80s. Winds will be light from the southwest around 5 mph.
Friday
What: Scattered showers and storms.
Another round of showers and storms should pop up on Friday, though the fine details of the timing and location are less certain. As usual, the afternoon hours will be favored. Winds will be light, under 5 mph, which could lead to slow-moving storms. If any areas see heavy rain both Thursday and Friday, there could be some flood concerns. It will remain very humid with highs in the low 80s.
Saturday
What: Scattered showers.
Scattered showers will continue to be possible on Saturday. The rain does not look as widespread or potentially heavy as Thursday or Friday, but like Friday, the fine details of how the day evolves are still uncertain. Warm, muggy conditions will persist with highs similar to Friday and only a slight reduction in humidity, if there is a reduction at all. Winds will pick up a bit from the southwest, but will remain under 10 mph.
Sunday
What: A few showers early.
Stray showers will be possible on Sunday, mainly during the morning hours. The rain should be even less widespread and lighter than Saturday’s, and much less than Thursday or Friday’s rain. Dewpoints will remain muggy in the upper half of the 60s with highs generally reaching the low 80s. Winds will start from the southwest with speeds around 5 mph, but will turn to the northwest and increase to near 10 mph for the afternoon.
Monday
What: Perhaps some showers.
A few showers will remain possible into Monday. At this time, the rain looks very spotty and light, more akin to Saturday and Sunday than anything like Thursday and Friday. Afternoon highs will be around 80 degrees with moderate humidity. Winds will be from the southwest at 5-10 mph.
Tuesday
What: A few showers early.
A cold front will pass through the area Monday night or early Tuesday. A few showers will accompany the front, but nothing too heavy. If the front is delayed to Tuesday afternoon, there will be a higher chance for some thundery downpours.
Assuming an early frontal passage, highs will be in the 70s and humidity levels will drop through the day. This will kick off a new period of lower temperatures and humidity levels.
Later Next Week
Behind Tuesday’s cold front, the remainder of next week will have high temperatures mainly in the 70s. Should a rainy day unfold, highs in the 60s would be possible. Rain is too uncertain to pinpoint at this time, however. With cooler temperatures and lower humidity, the threat for heavy rain looks low at least.
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