Thursday will be quiet, but Friday will be anything but. A strong weather system will bring gusty winds starting tonight and persisting through Saturday. Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely on and off Friday. Temperatures will briefly approach 70 degrees on Friday, but will fall rapidly through the night, reaching the mid 30s by Saturday morning. There is still a small chance for a few snowflakes to mix with showers early Saturday before high pressure builds in, turning skies sunny for the afternoon. That high pressure will become a dominating force, with sunny skies Sunday and throughout most of next week. Frost and freeze conditions are very likely Saturday night into early Sunday.
Published Thursday, October 15
Thursday
What: Sun and clouds
Skies are starting the day overcast with a little patchy drizzle. Through the morning, some breaks of sunshine should start to appear. Sunshine will increase more in the midday and afternoon, but will still be mixed with clouds. Clouds will increase again this evening with a few showers. There will be a higher chance for showers after midnight, with thundery downpours also possible during the predawn hours.
Winds will be from the north with speeds around or slightly over 5 mph in the morning, then east at less than 5 mph for the afternoon. A southeast wind will develop late in the afternoon and become blustery Thursday night as it turns to the south. Higher elevations may see gusts over 30 mph, especially after midnight.
Afternoon highs will mainly be in the upper 50s with mid 50s in the hills. Temperatures will initially drop to the upper 40s and low 50s early this evening, but will start to rise even before midnight. By Friday morning, some western areas may be into the 60s, with temperatures across much of the region in the mid and upper 50s.
Friday
What:Â On and off showers and storms.
Widespread showers and thunderstorms early Friday morning will become more scattered by mid-morning. There will be on and off showers continuing through the midday and into the afternoon, ahead of, along, and behind the cold front. The highest chance for thunderstorms will be over the southeastern Finger Lakes during the early afternoon. Any storm could have some strong winds.
A first front will move through during the early to mid afternoon, turning winds from the south to the west. Wind speeds will be 15-20 mph with gusts near or over 30 mph. Just before this wind shift occurs, temperatures should briefly make it to around 70 degrees. A slow drop into the 60s will take place during the afternoon.
A second front will drop south during the late afternoon or early evening, turning winds to the northwest. Wind speeds will remain near 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph through the night. Temperatures will dive, quickly falling through the 50s, 40s, and into the 30s overnight. The strong winds should prevent frost formation, though.
A few lake enhanced showers are expected through Friday night. Some higher elevations may see some snow flakes mixing in toward dawn.
Saturday
What: A few early showers, then sun
A few spits of rain, or rain and snow mixing, will be possible through the first half of Saturday morning. Not all areas will see precipitation during this time. High pressure will then build in with dry air and skies should gradually clear through the later morning hours. By the afternoon, skies should be mostly sunny. Winds will persist at around 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph until the late afternoon.
Despite the increase in sunshine, it will be the coldest afternoon our region has seen since mid-May or even April. Highs will only manage the low and mid 40s for most areas.
Winds will decrease during the evening and eventually turn to the southwest overnight. The timing of this wind shift may be important for frost and freeze considerations, though most of the area will probably be at risk for frost. If the shift occurs quick enough, lows may settle mostly in the mid 30s. If not, low and mid 30s will be more likely with cold pockets dropping into the 20s.
Sunday
What:Â Sunny
Winds will be much lighter on Sunday, coming from the southwest at around or slightly over 5 mph. Skies will be mostly sunny with few if any clouds. Temperatures will rebound a bit, with afternoon highs in the mid and upper 50s. Nighttime temperatures will range from the low 40s down to the mid 30s with areas of frost.
Monday
What: Sunny
High pressure will continue to dominate the weather on Monday, leaving skies mostly sunny and winds light. Temperatures will work their way into the low 60s for most areas. Light south winds will hold nighttime temperatures mainly to the low and mid 40s with a few pockets of upper 30s.
Tuesday
What: Sunny
Sunny skies will continue as high pressure remains in firm control of the region. Temperatures will be similar to Monday in the low 60s with light south winds, followed by nighttime temperatures mainly in the 40s.
Wednesday
What: Sunny
No change is expected on Wednesday either, with more sunshine and similar temperatures.
Late Next Week
Another sun-filled day is expected Thursday. Friday may have a few showers as a cold front passes through. Some showers may also be possible next weekend, but this remains uncertain. Temperatures become less certain as well heading toward the weekend, as they will depend on whatever weather systems may be possible through.
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