5 PM, Wednesday, July 1 update
All day, I have been watching a line of thunderstorms track through northern Michigan, across Lake Huron, and now into Ontario, Canada.
As I have been stressing all week, the weather models are doing extremely poor with this, either not showing it at all, or showing it dissipating hours ago.
Obviously, that isn’t the case, and there has been a recent increase in thunderstorm activity.
The question now is not whether or not this makes it into New York State… it is what impact will the setting sun have on it? Given the overall environment, not much, at least initially. As we get deeper into the evening, the dynamics that allow for a long-lasting complex like this may shift somewhat, and we could see some eventual weakening as it approaches our area.
The Storm Prediction Center in a discussion a couple hours ago mentioned this and another complex further north as potentially needing watches. As you can see in the upper right of the graphic, northern New York now has a watch for that complex. I suspect a watch will indeed be needed at least over Western NY and perhaps the western Finger Lakes soon.
As I have been all day, I will continue to monitor this closely.
There are also a couple small cells over Schuyler and Tompkins county. They haven’t really gotten going much, and the overall trend for activity across central New York and northern Pennsylvania has been for small cells that come and go. So, the main threat will be the larger complex coming in from Canada, but be aware that a pop-up storm remains possible at any time for the remainder of this afternoon and early evening.
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