One of the first large winter storms will move through the eastern part of the nation on Monday with a mixed bag of precipitation and bitter air behind it.For the Finger Lakes region, this will be a storm of transition as the low pressure center tracks directly over the region.
Precipitation will likely break out as some snow in the pre-dawn hours Monday morning. A quick inch or two may fall before warmer air works in aloft. This warm air above the surface could lead to a brief period of sleet and freezing rain before the warm air at the surface catches up. Most areas will turn to rain for a while before precipitation becomes more scattered by late Monday morning.
Colder air will work in behind the system though, changing lingering precipitation back to snow by Monday evening.
Frigid west winds should produce bountiful lake effect snow to the east of the Great Lakes and some areas may have a tricky morning commute on Tuesday as well.
Precipitation amounts with this system will be high, but not anything particularly special. Areas that stay all snow should be out of the heaviest precipitation and may mange 2-5″. The rest of the Finger Lakes may see 1-3″ of snow and roughly 0.5″ of rain, give or take. More snow is likely in the lake effect behind the system, with several inches across parts of the Finger Lakes possible.
The confidence for this storm is about average., if not slightly above average. I am not expecting to have to make any significant changes to the forecast.