In avoiding Tropical Depression Bill, the Finger Lakes will be set up for severe thunderstorms with torrential downpours for Father’s Day.
Tropical Depression Bill is spinning its way through the Ohio Valley towards New Jersey. Area area of heavy rain extends north and east of the depression and will bring the risk of flooding across Pennsylvania and into southern New England tonight and early on Sunday.
Meanwhile, in the Finger Lakes, we will see some clouds from Bill today and an increase in atmospheric moisture as high pressure moves off the New England coast, promoting southerly winds across our region. As the atmosphere moistens up this afternoon, a few scattered showers or thunderstorms may pop up.
For the most part, the rain from today’s thunderstorms will not be heavy enough to cause major flooding concerns. However, if a location picks up a fair amount of rain today, they will be primed for flooding on Sunday.
A cold front will push across the region Sunday afternoon. With Bill well to the southeast, we should see some sunshine before the front comes in, which will help boost temperatures into the 80s with very humid air in place. The atmosphere will become increasingly unstable (which is favorable for thunderstorm development) while winds aloft increase to levels sufficient for organized, severe thunderstorms.
Any thunderstorms tomorrow will be capable of producing strong, damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat, and extent of the severe threat, is a bit less certain and may depend on how the day evolves tomorrow.
Perhaps more concerning is the flash flood threat though. The atmosphere will once again be laden with moisture for these thunderstorms to tap into. Rainfall rates of over an inch an hour are likely, which could cause flooding concerns, especially in areas that see a round of heavy rain this afternoon.
An administrative note: I wasn’t able to update the last two days because I was at a conference and each morning gave me technical difficulties. Tomorrow is Father’s Day, so I will not be updating constantly as I have for past events. I will be sending the occasional updates during the day for the more serious situations in addition to a full update at some point in the morning.