Temperatures have been running about 15 degrees above normal for the Finger Lakes over the last few days. Friday and Saturday will offer no change from that, with highs well into the 80s both days.
Change is coming though, as a cold front slowly moves eastward towards the Finger Lakes. Friday morning, this front was moving from the Upper Midwest into the Great Lakes. Ahead of the front, breezy, hot conditions are in place. Behind the front, temperatures drop about 20 degrees in an abrupt change from summer to fall.
This front will make its way through the Finger Lakes on Saturday evening. With the late day passage of the front, temperatures should reach the mid 80s both Friday and Saturday afternoon.
The first chances for rain will actually come in late Friday, as a few showers well ahead of the front develop over western New York. Most places will probably not see any rain Friday, but the chance, small as it may be, does exist.
Rain is much more likely late Saturday afternoon and into Saturday evening as the front moves into the area. The timing of the front may be just soon enough that there is still some daytime heating to work with, and some thunderstorms may be possible, especially across western New York and the western Finger Lakes.
The wind on Saturday afternoon will be gusty to begin with, occasionally gusting to 30 mph. Any thunderstorms that do fire late in the afternoon may feed off of these winds and produce some localized stronger gusts.
Thunderstorms will start to dissipate as they head east and the sun sets. Temperatures will quickly drop behind the front, with lows Sunday morning in the 40s and 50s. Sunday will be dry, with a mix of sun and clouds, with temperatures in the mid 60s.
Near to slightly above normal temperatures will return for a good portion of next week, though it will likely not reach 80 degrees in most area.
I have had a lot of people asking about what we may see this winter. I am working on putting together an “official” Finger Lakes Weather Winter Outlook, which will hopefully be ready by October 1. I would like to have a company sponsor this outlook. If interested, please contact me ASAP.