Scattered severe thunderstorms will be possible over the eastern Finger Lakes this afternoon.
Now that Sunday morning is here, the severe threat for the Finger Lakes today is becoming more clear.
A warm front pushed through last night with rain and is now north of the area. Humid, warm air is in place, but clouds are quite thick. Without the sun, the atmosphere will not be able to destabilize enough for a widespread or significant severe weather event.
However, the winds in the atmosphere are strong. With a strengthening area of low pressure just northwest of Lake Ontario, and a cold front pushing through this afternoon, there are enough ingredients in place for some more scattered severe weather.
Rain and thunderstorms will move northeast and develop over the Finger Lakes during the midday hours. By the time this reaches the eastern Finger Lakes, a few storms may become stronger, but I generally do not think there will be much too severe weather early on.
There is a chance for a second area of thunderstorms to develop over the Finger Lakes along the cold front by the mid afternoon. These storms may have a better chance at becoming strong to severe, but it is not 100% certain that they will be able to get strong enough to be severe.
So, the overall message for today is that, at worst, severe storms will probably be scattered within a larger area of rain and non-severe thunderstorms. Wind damage will be the primary threat. The hail and tornado threats exist, but are very low.
The bulk of the precipitation should move east by dinner time. A few scattered showers and even a thunderstorm may be possible into the early evening hours.
Below is my live Twitter feed, which is the best format for posting severe weather updates. You do not need to be on Twitter to see these reports, so feel free to continue checking in throughout the afternoon. As always, please let me know what sort of weather you experience and stay safe!
