A cold front will bring scattered severe thunderstorms to the Finger Lakes this evening.
Before the storms develop, however, it will be another hot and sunny day. Temperatures will rapidly climb through the 60s and 70s this morning and should be well into the 80s by noon. Many areas will see 90 degrees today, with the normally warmer areas (urban centers and the I-90 Corridor) reaching the low or even mid 90s.
The humidity will be fairly low again today, but will increase through the afternoon as winds strengthen from the southwest. The increase in moisture, high levels of heat, gusty winds and an incoming cold front will set the stage for a stormy evening.
Thunderstorms will develop towards the late afternoon and early evening across Canada. The storms will drop southeast towards the Finger Lakes, entering northern parts of western New York as early as 8pm. Scattered clusters of strong to severe storms will move across the Finger Lakes during the evening hours, gradually losing their punch towards midnight as they exit the region. The times listed on the map along the dotted lines are approximate arrival time for the storms.
Strong winds and some hail are the primary threats with the storms. The storms should be individual cells or small clusters, aligning themselves in a broken line from southwest to northeast. Most areas will probably not see severe weather, due to the scattered nature of the storms. This is the reason I went with a low, and not elevated risk. Those areas that do see storms, however, could see some intense weather for a time, and I expect a number of severe thunderstorm warnings and reports of downed trees and hail.
These storms will probably do little to help the overall dry conditions in the region. Even those areas that do see heavy rain from storms will only see a brief period of heavy rain, most of which may simply run off the hard, dry ground.
Stick with Finger Lakes Weather through the evening for updates.
Cooler weather will move in behind the cold front. Tuesday and Wednesday both look sunny and dry, but with temperatures in the mid and low 70s respectively. Thursday is uncertain at this point. More likely than not, it will either end up similar to Wednesday with some sun and highs in the 70s. Otherwise, a passing storm system could make it cool and showery, or bring a severe threat to southern parts of the region, depending on the track of the system.