Temperatures will near daily record highs on Tuesday, but a significant pattern change is on the horizon.
Near Record Warmth Tuesday
Southerly winds, sunshine and a very warm air mass will combine to bring near record warmth to the Finger Lakes region Tuesday afternoon. Many places will see high temperatures 20 to 25 degrees above normal.
Many areas will reach the low 80s this afternoon, with the remainder of the region pushing well into the upper 70s. For some, it will be hot enough to set new daily record highs.
Geneva’s highest October 18th temperature since records began in 1969 is 79 degrees, set in 1980. That record should easily be broken. Canadaigua’s records go back to 1944, making the record high a bit harder to reach. In 1947, it reached 82 degrees. The temperature will be close to that today.
Rochester and Syracuse will also chase record highs set in 1947. Both cities reached 83 degrees on that day and will take a serious run at tying or breaking that record today.
For Ithaca, the daily record goes all the way back to 1908. That record, set at 84 degrees, may end up being safe today, but it will be close.
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Substantial Rain Possible Before…
After the heat today, the big weather story for this week becomes the chance for some substantial rain later in the week across the Finger Lakes.
A cold front will push south into the Finger Lakes tonight with some rain showers. The front will dry up on Wednesday, but remain a subtle boundary that will serve as the focal point for the next weather system.
Rain out ahead of that system will develop late Wednesday night into early Thursday as the front lifts back north as a warm front.
Low pressure will then track through the lower Great Lakes Thursday night into Friday. A band of heavy, slow moving rain will likely develop as the low pressure system moves through.
Additional steady rain may develop behind the system for much of Friday.
There is a very high likelihood that much of the Finger Lakes will see over an inch of rain by the time the storm system begins to pull away Friday night. There is a moderate chance for widespread amounts over 2 inches, and at least a slim chance of some areas seeing four or more inches. While the heavy rain, along with gusty winds, could cause some localized small scale flooding, especially where leaves clog storm drains, this rain will bring at least some drought relief to the region.
…Significant Cold Next Week and Beyond
Not only will this week’s storm system bring some much needed rain to the region, it will also usher in a new regime of cold temperatures which may stick around into early November.
During the course of the next few weeks, the normal daily high temperature will drop from the upper 50s to the low 50s. So, when temperatures are expected to be below normal, we are to the point of the year where that means some very chilly air.
In fact, as the storm system begins to pull away on Saturday, there are indications that some lake effect will develop across the Finger Lakes region, with a double connection between the Georgian Bay and Lake Ontario. While most of this will likely be rain, some snow mixing in is not out of the question. The probability of seeing over 4 inches of rain in the Finger Lakes region this week is also about the same as the probability of some areas seeing at a coating of snow by Sunday morning.
By the middle of next week, temperatures could be struggling to get even to the mid 40s for afternoon highs. That sort of cold will become more and more common as October changes over to November.