The Heat is on Wednesday
Temperatures will soar Wednesday across the Finger Lakes, making it easily the warmest day in the past month.
Skies will be sunny to partly cloudy throughout the day. South winds ahead of a subtle boundary will help give temperatures an extra boost over yesterday.
Most places will reach the mid 80s today with upper 80s a real possibility for the typically warmer parts of the northern and central Finger Lakes.
Temperatures have not been this warm in the Finger Lakes in a month. The last time it reached the mid to upper 80s was June 19th.
Humidity levels will be tolerable today, with early and mid afternoon dew points generally in the low to mid 60s. This means there will be very little to no heat index to worry about today.
The lack of humidity should also keep the area dry as the aforementioned subtle boundary slides through late this afternoon and evening. One or two very isolated stray showers may try to develop, but the vast majority of the region will not even be close to seeing rain.
Late Afternoon and Evening Worries Thursday
Much of Thursday will be a nice day, too. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler behind Wednesday’s boundary, but highs generally should reach the mid 80s.
Dry, sunny conditions are expected through the morning and mid afternoon hours.
However, by late afternoon, there is cause for concern.
A more potent area of low pressure will approach the region from the west. This system is expected to spawn a complex of severe thunderstorms this evening across the Upper Midwest. This complex of storms should dissipate over the Great Lakes early Thursday but should redevelop over Canada Thursday afternoon.
By dinnertime Thursday, this complex of storms may be pushing into western New York with the potential for damaging winds, hail, and flash flooding.
These thunderstorms will push east during the evening hours, gradually dissipating. At this time, most of the Finger Lakes region is at risk for some severe thunderstorms. Of course, any torrential downpours will have the capability to produce more flooding, regardless of how quickly the storms progress eastward.
Unlike most of our recent events, the severe aspect of these thunderstorms may be as great a concern as the flooding aspect.
As is often the case with severe weather and thunderstorm events, there is a fair amount of uncertainty at this point, 36 hours in advance.
More details will become clear overnight and into Thursday as the initial thunderstorm complex develops and dissipates to our northwest. Be sure to check back tomorrow for the latest updates.
Weekend Weather Concerns
The weather this weekend could also bring cause for concern.
Saturday is a rather uncertain day at this point in time. Like the setup today into Thursday, models have consistently shown a complex of thunderstorms developing over the Midwest and tracking east Friday night into early Saturday.
The track of this thunderstorm complex has been inconsistent, but generally has been to our south, across Pennsylvania. This is far from certain though.
Should this complex develop further north, locally heavy rain could fall across parts of the Finger Lakes. At this time though, the forecast is for a mainly dry Saturday.
Thunderstorms are more likely on Sunday as low pressure moves into the region. The details this far out are, of course, fuzzy at best. However, some strong storms and/or additional flooding concerns will be possible.
Showers and thunderstorms may also persist into Monday before generally dry weather moves in for most of next week.