Weather Stuck on Repeat
The weather Thursday in the Finger Lakes will be more or less the same as it was on Wednesday and Tuesday with above normal temperatures and scattered afternoon thunderstorms.
Sunny skies this morning will help temperatures rise quickly through the 70s and into the 80s by the early afternoon.
Many areas will again top out in the mid 80s, with a few areas getting warmer and a few staying a bit cooler.
Much like the rest of this week, there are no significant weather systems in the region. However, scattered showers and thunderstorms will again bubble up in the afternoon heat.
The Southern Tier and western Finger Lakes will again have the best chance of seeing these thunderstorms due to topographical differences. Anywhere in the region could see some rain, however.
These thunderstorms will be slow moving once more, which could lead to another round of localized flooding. A few flash flood warnings were required yesterday and may be needed again today, especially if rain falls in the same areas repeatedly.
These thunderstorms will also be capable of some small hail and a brief gust of wind, but severe criterion will generally not be met.
A few storms will rumble into the evening hours, but the trends will be for weakening precipitation once the sun sets.
Stronger Storms Possible Friday Evening
A cold front will approach the Finger Lakes on Friday, which could trigger a round of more widespread, stronger thunderstorms.
Before the front arrives though, sunny skies through the morning and afternoon will help temperatures rise to their hottest levels of the week.
After morning lows in the upper 60s, the temperature should be above 80 degrees by noon for most of the region. A few places in Rochester and Wayne County could hit 90 degrees during the afternoon, with mid and upper 80s across the rest of the Finger Lakes.
There will be a small chance for a stray shower or thunderstorm during the morning and afternoon hours, but most of the region will stay quiet until the evening.
As the cold front works in from the west, a line of thunderstorms is likely. This line should maintain at least a low threat for severe weather as it pushes across the Finger Lakes near and just after sunset.
Gusty winds will be the primary threat with the line of storms. There is also a chance for some individual cells to develop ahead of the line. These would have a hail and minimal tornado risk but remains uncertain.
The storms will move along at a steady pace, so flooding issues should be minimal.
The thunderstorms should push east by midnight, with some lingering showers persisting into Saturday morning.
Cooler for the Weekend and Next Week
Much cooler air will settle in behind the cold front. Temperatures Saturday will drop 15 to 20 degrees with highs in the afternoon only around 70 degrees.
Saturday will also be rather windy, with gusts over 30 mph common across the region.
Sunday will be the nicest day of the weekend and possibly the next week. Winds will be light, the sun will shine, and temperatures will head into the mid 70s.
Rain is likely on Monday, but how much is uncertain. There is at least some potential for heavy rain, though the latest models keep most of that to our south. Showers will be likely on Tuesday before a dry day on Wednesday.
Temperatures through much of next week will struggle to stay above even 70 degrees.