Cold Fronts Sneak Through
A pair of cold fronts will move through the Finger Lakes on Wednesday, followed by a third front later Thursday night.
Despite these fronts, there is a lack of truly cold air and temperatures will remain mostly above normal well into next week.
The first front is already pushing through the Finger Lakes early Wednesday morning. Some clouds accompany the front, but no precipitation is falling.
Behind this front, an area of sunshine will move in as temperatures slowly drop from morning lows near 50 degrees into the 40s.
The second front will move through later this afternoon. Again, precipitation is unlikely but clouds will increase as the front moves in.
Temperatures will slide back into the 30s this evening and into the 20s overnight.
However, the temperature will again push into the upper 40s on Thursday as south winds return ahead of the third front.
This front should have a few rain showers with it after 3 pm Thursday which may turn to a bit of snow overnight Thursday.
Temperatures Slightly Above Normal
As November turns to December, the normal daily high temperatures in the Finger Lakes are now in the upper 30s.
Through the weekend and into early next week, however, most days will see highs in the 40s.
Friday will have highs in the low 40s behind Thursday night’s cold front with a good deal of clouds, but a few breaks of sun as well.
Saturday will be a bit warmer with a little more sunshine. Highs should reach the mid 40s.
A few rain showers will be possible on Sunday, which will help keep temperatures in the low 40s. These showers will be in response to another push of warmer air.
Look for highs early next week to be in the mid and upper 40s with rain arriving on Tuesday along a cold front.
So, while temperatures will be above normal, they will only be slightly so, with most days less than 10 degrees above normal.
Signs of Winter
There are growing signs that this trend will not last, though.
Longer range models, including the European ensemble suite that is often my go-to for longer range (beyond a week) information, show a pattern swap towards the end of next week.
Below normal temperatures are expected to move into the eastern half of the country, including our region.
With even modestly below normal temperatures, it would be cold enough for snow at any time of day.
Lake effect will, of course, be a concern, but will greatly depend on the winds and the type of air mass in place.
I am sure it is only a matter of time before the hype machine really starts to crank up (it already is some), so be aware of it.
Yes, it will probably be getting cold soon, but until we get much, much closer, be wary of any details on specific snow threats or premature White Christmas predictions.
Don't Buy Hype!