8 Sep 2018

Key messages for FLX heavy rain event and Hurricane Florence

by | posted in: Forecast | 0
finger lakes weather forecast heavy rain sunday september 9 2018 monday september 10 2018 hurricane florence key messages
Heavy rain is likely for the Finger Lakes late Sunday though Monday. Flood watches have been issued. [Photo by Joan Lockwood]

Key Messages for Heavy Rain Event

Here are the latest no-hype details on the heavy rain event heading for the Finger Lakes region:

  • Widespread heavy rain is falling across Ohio Valley associated with the remains of Tropical Storm Gordon and a stalled out frontal boundary.
  • A strong high pressure system is keeping the rain from moving north.
  • Rain showing up on radar along the northern edge of the precipitation shield is not reaching the ground.
  • Clouds will remain thick through Saturday and Sunday.
  • Temperatures Saturday will be in the mid 60s. Sunday’s highs will be in the low 60s north and upper 50s south.
  • Rain will start to enter the Southern Tier Sunday afternoon and will move north extremely slowly.
  • The remainder of the region will see rain move from south to north through Sunday night.
  • Heaviest rain looks likely on Monday and may last much of the day.
  • Widespread amounts of 1.5 to 3.5 inches are likely.
  • Main-stem river flooding is not expected.
  • Flash flooding is generally not expected, but not completely out of the question.
  • Flooding will mostly be characterized by small streams running over their banks.
  • See the Weather Alerts page for the latest watches and alerts.
  • Check the Radar page for the latest on the rain, but know that the leading edge of the rain may not be reaching the ground.

Key Messages for Florence

finger lakes weather national hurricane center florence forecast
The official forecast for Florence from the National Hurricane Center on Saturday, September 8, 2018 at 5 am. Despite the look of this forecast, a US Landfall is NOT yet a guarantee- a track along the northern edge of the cone could lead to Florence turning away from the US before making landfall.. [Click to Enlarge]
  • Currently a tropical storm, but starting to strengthen.
  • Expected to become a major, category 3+ hurricane by Monday night.
  • Landfall along the eastern US coast increasingly likely, but not yet a guarantee.
  • Still too far away to accurately predict where Florence will go.
  • US Landfall, if it occurs, would not happen until Thursday/Friday next week at the earliest.
  • Those along the East Coast and with plans to travel there should be developing and reviewing hurricane preparation plans, but not yet acting on them this weekend.
  • Impacts in the Finger Lakes, if any, would be unlikely until after next weekend. Impossible to say whether rain from Florence will move in or not.
  • Continue to be wary of hype and “forecasts” that attempt to pinpoint potential landfall locations, as this remains out of the reach of plausible, scientific forecasting.

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Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.