High Flash Flood Risk
Up-to-the-second NO HYPE weather updates for the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier region. Flash flooding is likely tonight as the remains of Hurricane Florence interact with a frontal boundary.
Here is a summary of the changes since my post this morning, which can be found further down the page. An updated flash flood map can also be found further down the page.
- Small increase in confidence that heaviest rain will extend across the Southern Tier, likely just south of Ithaca and Cortland and north of Binghamton. Elmira is in the bulls-eye should this come to be.
- Extension of northern edge of minimal and low flood risks due to alternate scenarios that are unlikely, but still possible.
- Forecast confidence remains VERY LOW. After the morning models started to show some consistency, the afternoon models went crazy with an even wider spread in possibilities.
- I’ve hung my hat, so to speak, on the morning consensus.
- Destructive flash flooding will be possible on a small, localized scale.
- Widepsread minor flooding is possible across the Southern Tier and Southern FLX.
- Flooding is unlikely further north.
- Rain amounts will generally be 1-3 inches in the orange and red shaded areas, but with localized amounts over 4 inches.
I will NOT be doing live video tonight. I have a cold and do not think I could manage. Live blogging will be much easier.
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