17 Sep 2018

Live Flash Flooding Updates Throughout Monday Evening

by | posted in: Forecast | 6
finger lakes weather forecast monday september 17 2018 flash flood live weather updates
Finger Lakes Weather will provide live storm and flash flood updates deep into Monday evening.

High Flash Flood Risk

Up-to-the-second NO HYPE weather updates for the Finger Lakes and Southern Tier region. Flash flooding is likely tonight as the remains of Hurricane Florence interact with a frontal boundary.

Here is a summary of the changes since my post this morning, which can be found further down the page. An updated flash flood map can also be found further down the page.

  • Small increase in confidence that heaviest rain will extend across the Southern Tier, likely just south of Ithaca and Cortland and north of Binghamton. Elmira is in the bulls-eye should this come to be.
  • Extension of northern edge of minimal and low flood risks due to alternate scenarios that are unlikely, but still possible.

Important Notes

  • Forecast confidence remains VERY LOW. After the morning models started to show some consistency, the afternoon models went crazy with an even wider spread in possibilities.
  • I’ve hung my hat, so to speak, on the morning consensus.
  • Destructive flash flooding will be possible on a small, localized scale.
  • Widepsread minor flooding is possible across the Southern Tier and Southern FLX.
  • Flooding is unlikely further north.
  • Rain amounts will generally be 1-3 inches in the orange and red shaded areas, but with localized amounts over 4 inches.

I will NOT be doing live video tonight. I have a cold and do not think I could manage. Live blogging will be much easier.

↓ SCROLL DOWN FOR LIVE BLOG FEED ↓

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Flooding Threats

finger lakes weather forecast monday september 17 2018 flash flood risk map live weather updates
The updated flood map shows a HIGH risk for flash flooding across the Southern Tier while the minimal and low risks have been adjusted slightly further north. Confidence remains very low. Click to enlarge the map.

Morning Blog Post

Get a more in-depth look at the day’s forecast from this morning’s blog post:

Don’t keep this great resource to yourself! Share it with everyone you know! You may just keep them safe.
Follow Meteorologist Drew Montreuil:
Meteorologist Drew Montreuil has been forecasting the weather in the Finger Lakes region since 2006 and has degrees in meteorology from SUNY Oswego (B.S. with Honors) and Cornell (M.S.). Drew and his wife have four young boys. When not working or playing with the boys, he is probably out for a run through the countryside.

6 Responses

  1. John Gregoire
    |

    1.13 started at 1730 and ended at 0530 here near Mecklenburg.

  2. Sara
    |

    Is there a way for me to track how much rain has actually fallen? I have rental properties and want to know when I need to worry.

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      There is not much in the way of live data…most of it is after the fact. There are radar estimates that you can possibly find, but they aren’t the most accurate.

  3. Gail Dalmat
    |

    Thank you, Drew! Get some good sleep tonight, okay? It’s going around–a friend in the Southeastern US also has a bad cold.

  4. Bill Calhoun
    |

    Accuweather and Weather Underground have just barely an inch for this storm for Lansing, NY. You have us around 3″. Who to believe….. 🙂

    • Meteorologist Drew Montreuil
      |

      You very well could end up under an inch.

      Accuweather, and probably Weather Underground, generate their forecasts straight from model data…usually the inferior GFS model. The GFS does not have nearly as high rain totals as other, more reliable models…and it has its axis of heaviest rain further north.