Cold front Tuesday; First look at weekend storm

Cold Front Brings More…Cold

Another cold front will bring another shot of well below normal temperatures and lake effect precipitation, but not until a few afternoon showers and thunderstorms Tuesday.

The cold front this morning is still well to our west having just crossed over Lake Huron into Ontario, Canada. There is not much in the way of precipitation with the front this morning.

Here in the Finger Lakes, temperatures are starting in the mid to upper 30s and low 40s. An increasingly gusty south-southwest wind and some breaks in the cloud cover should boost temperatures quickly this morning.

By the early afternoon, temperatures will be in the low and mid 50s as the front moves in. Scattered showers and a couple of thunderstorms will pop up and persist on and off through the remainder of the day and into the evening.

Temperatures should start to fall back through the 40s during the second half of the afternoon as winds turn to the northwest and remain blustery.

Rain showers will continue overnight and well into Wednesday as moisture wrapping around the low pressure is enhanced by Lake Ontario. A few wet snowflakes may mix in over the western Southern Tier.

Showers will diminish Wednesday afternoon, but may flare up again some Wednesday night before ending Thursday morning.

Thursday will then be partly cloudy with winds remaining a bit on the gusty side.

High temperatures Wednesday and Thursday will hover within a couple degrees on either side of 40 degrees with morning lows ranging through the 30s.

Unique Weekend Storm System

While all of this is unfolding across the Finger Lakes, our weekend weather will be getting set up over 2000 miles to the southwest.

Hurricane Willa in the eastern Pacific Ocean will make landfall in southwestern Mexico this evening as a strong hurricane.

Moisture and energy from Willa will cross northeast across Mexico and merge with a weak low pressure over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico. This new storm system will track east across the northern Gulf Thursday then cut northeast across the Southeastern US on Friday.

By Saturday morning, this system will begin to intensify off the coast of the Carolinas and develop into a nor’easter. As always, the track will then be everything.

It remains too early to say with any confidence where the storm will go and what impacts it will have here in the Finger Lakes. The most likely scenario will be for a period of rain, probably late Saturday into early Sunday. There are other unlikely scenarios as well, including a complete miss or some snow.

At this point, it is appropriate to understand and marvel at this unique set up, but it is not time to fret about specifics in the weekend forecast. Stay tuned throughout the coming days for more details that you can trust.