Unsettled Through the Weekend
A small quick moving disturbance will pass through the Finger Lakes on Friday before a much larger storm system brings rain, then warmth this weekend.
Friday’s disturbance will be quick moving and should have little impact on your day-to-day routine. There will be a small chance for a flurry this morning, then a couple hours of steadier snow around midday and into the early afternoon.
With temperatures in the mid 30s, the snow should not stick to the roads or accumulate much. At most, a few places may approach an inch of accumulation.
The snow will push east by the mid-afternoon leaving cloudy skies and quiet conditions.
Temperatures will retreat into the upper 20s and low 30s overnight with clouds remaining in place.
A large and powerful storm system will develop today over the Plains and track northeast towards the Upper Midwest. A surge of warm air will push north far to the east of the storm center.
As this warm air approaches, rain will overspread the Finger Lakes late Saturday afternoon into Saturday night. A few pockets of freezing rain will be possible, especially over Central New York. Any icing should be brief.
Temperatures Saturday afternoon will mostly be in the mid and upper 30s. An increasing south wind will bring the warm air in and temperatures will rise into the low and mid 40s by dawn Sunday.
Steady but light rain will end early Sunday and by the afternoon the sun should shine. Temperatures will respond by rising into the mid and upper 50s.
With the rain and warmer temperatures, much of the snow pack will melt. Some minor, localized flooding may result, but I do not expect widespread or significant problems.
Showers will increase again late Sunday as colder air trickles back into the region.
More Cold Weather Next Week
Sunday’s warm-up will be brief with well below normal temperatures throughout next week.
With the cold air will come a chance for some limited lake effect, but no major weather systems are on the immediate horizon.
Monday will be our transition day with temperatures starting near 40 degrees but ending up in the 30s by the late afternoon. A few showers or flurries will be possible with some lake effect snow Monday evening to the southeast of the Great Lakes.
The snow should weaken during the day Tuesday only to flare up again Tuesday night into Wednesday. Most of the snow will fall from Wayne to Onondaga County where a couple inches may be possible.
Winds should turn more southerly by Thursday, removing any lake effect from the area.
High temperatures Tuesday and Wednesday will be near or just a touch above 30 degrees. Low and mid 30s are more likely for Thursday.
A significant storm system is expected to develop late next week and into the weekend, but there is zero confidence on a potential location or path. Everything from a major snow to more 50+ degree temperatures or a complete miss with no impact remains possible for the Finger Lakes.
Beware of premature weather hype with this system.
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