Between Systems Tuesday
Most of Tuesday will be a quiet day across the Finger Lakes though winds will still be a bit on the blustery side.
A thin band of lake effect snow is working south through the region early this morning. A quick half-inch or so may fall as the band passes through and roads could briefly get a bit slick.
The band will weaken as it moves further south and will dissipate by the mid or late morning.
The remainder of Tuesday will have a mix of clouds and some breaks of sun.
Northwest winds will gust between 25-35 mph with the strongest gusts over Central New York.
High temperatures will only reach the low 20s, which is about 15 degrees below normal for late February.
Some clouds will work in overnight which should keep temperatures in the teens. If clear skies hold, single digits or even a few subzero temperatures could be possible.
Wednesday Moderate Snow Event
A small but potent clipper system will race across the northern Plains and Great Lakes on a path towards the Finger Lakes.
A few flurries will arrive during the morning with steady snow working in for the afternoon. The heaviest snow will fall during the evening hours.
It appears as though the core of heaviest precipitation will pass directly over the Finger Lakes with good support for snow flake growth.
The result should be anywhere from 4 to 8 inches of fluffy snow by Thursday morning. Most areas will probably see 5 or 6 inches.
Given that this is a small system, even a slight change in the track could lead to a drop off in snow amounts. This is especially true across the Southern Tier, which is already situated on the edge of the snow. There will be a quick drop off from the 4-8 inch snows to accumulations of just an inch or so.
I will have a map and briefing later tonight or Wednesday morning.
March in like a Lamb
High pressure will build in behind that system, bringing a mix of sun and a few clouds to the area for Thursday and Friday.
Temperatures Thursday will still be a touch below normal with mid 20s for highs. Friday will be warmer with upper 30s and a few low 40s if the sun is out enough.
Another system will swing through late Saturday into early Sunday with widespread snow. Accumulations look less than Wednesday’s snow at this point, but some areas could still see several inches.
A generally cold pattern will remain in place through next week with the dominate storm track to our south and east. Towards next weekend, temperatures should moderate.
Those looking for signs of Spring can take solace in the long range models consistently showing above normal temperatures for the latter half of March. Trusting long range models is always a risky business though.
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