Quiet Start Turns Snowy
High pressure over the Mid-Atlantic is delivering a sunny, cold start.
Temperatures this morning are in the single digits with a few areas just below zero.
Clouds will begin to increase later this morning and into the afternoon as a cold front approaches the region.
High temperatures will be near or just shy of 20 degrees before the front arrives.
Snow showers and a few heavier squalls will develop during the mid and late afternoon and continue into the evening.
While accumulations will only be an inch or less, some squalls could result in rapidly changing travel conditions. Please use caution traveling and be prepared to slow down or pull off if conditions suddenly take a turn for the worse.
Not all locations will see squalls this afternoon and evening.
Temperatures will fall back into the low teens this evening behind the front with single digits for most areas again by Wednesday morning.
Localized Heavy Lake Effect
Lake effect snow will begin to organize overnight as winds gradually turn to the northwest.
A band of heavy lake effect is likely by dawn Wednesday over the northern an eastern Finger Lakes. The exact location of this band is proving difficult to nail down.
The band will likely bounce around the region, not staying in a single place for more than a few hours.
From the morning commute into the late morning, the band should be somewhere in Wayne, Cayuga, and Cortland and/or Onondaga County. Travel on portions of I-90 and I-81 could be treacherous. Within the core of the band, snowfall rates will exceed one inch per hour and near zero visibilities are likely.
Total snow accumulations will likely vary greatly from location to location depending on where the band sets up. The hardest hit areas should see ten inches of more.
I hope to have an additional update this evening with more details on the areas most likely to see the lake effect Wednesday morning.
Over the course of the day, the band should lift north, passing through Syracuse at some point in the afternoon, and moving out of the Finger Lakes for the evening.
Outside of the lake effect, expect a mix of sun and clouds and a breezy, cold day. Northwest winds will gust between 30-35 mph, taking a high in the mid and upper teens and making it feel more like the single digits.
Additional flurries and or squalls may be possible Thursday as winds shift and move the lake effect back temporarily south. This remains uncertain and will need to be resolved over the next two days.
Temperatures on Thursday will remain well below normal with single digits in the morning and highs in the low 20s.
Warmer weather will start to return on Friday after another cold morning. Look for highs in the mid 30s with sun filled skies. Saturday, too looks sunny with highs in the 30s before snow turns to rain on Sunday.
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