Low Severe Risk Saturday
A few stronger thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and early this evening.
Warm air will move back into the Finger Lakes on gusty south winds today. Some passing clouds this morning for some additional afternoon soon. Combined, these factors will push temperatures into the 70s with a few low 80s possible west of Seneca Lake.
A disturbance aloft will approach this afternoon and interact with the warm air. On its own, this disturbance would not be capable of a whole lot. However, the gradient between cool air over the Great Lakes and the much warmer land temperatures will enhance the thunderstorm risk near the lakes.
Thunderstorms should develop off Lake Erie first and move through southwestern New York during the mid to late afternoon hours. Additional storms will fire up along Lake Ontario east of Rochester during the later afternoon.
These storms will be capable of some small to medium-sized hail and a few areas of tree damage.
It does not appear that the thunderstorms will traverse into the southeastern Finger Lakes, and if they do, they should weaken substantially.
The overall set up has a medium confidence. A worse situation seems unlikely, but it is possible that there is little to no severe weather whatsoever.
A second round of storms may develop off Lake Ontario this evening. These will have a minimal severe threat, but probably will not be too much to be worried about.
A stray shower or thunderstorm may be possible on Sunday, mainly across the Southern Tier. Most of the activity tomorrow should be even further south in Pennsylvania. No severe thunderstorms are expected.
Temperatures on Sunday will be comfortable in the low and mid 70s.
Monday still looks like a very nice day with sunshine much of the day and some thin wispy clouds late. Highs will reach the low 70s.
Active weather returns for the remainder of next week, especially Tuesday morning, Wednesday evening, and much of Thursday.
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