Late afternoon thunderstorm will have heavy downpours

Saturday Weather Notes

A pair of low pressure systems will move along a stalled out front that is draped across the Finger Lakes today.

The first of these lows is already in the area and has triggered a few showers and rumbles of thunder this morning, namely over the southeastern Finger Lakes.

As the low presses east, these showers will depart. While a stray shower cannot be ruled out during the midday to mid afternoon hours, the vast majority of the region will stay dry.

Some breaks of sun are likely, which, combined with a south wind, will push temperatures in the mid 70s.

New rain and thunderstorms are expected to develop by 4 or 5 PM. Models seem to be favoring the southeastern Finger Lakes once again for development, possibly due to some subtle wind currents left behind by the morning activity.

With an hour or so of activity springing to life in the southeastern Finger Lakes, a line of storms will spread west across the Southern Tier.

The main concern with these storms will be the potential for heavy rain and slow storm movement. This will especially be the case over the southeastern Finger Lakes, which I have placed in a Level 2- Low risk for flash flooding. This means a few poor drainage areas could see some flooding problems.

Any storms that develop will also have a minimal chance for some small hail or gusty winds.

Areas not shaded in green or yellow on the map above will generally stay mostly dry this afternoon and evening, though where the northern boundary sets up is somewhat uncertain.

Additional rain and thunderstorms may move in from the west after sunset, possibly impacting a larger portion of the Finger Lakes. While these could prolong any localized flooding issues, these storms will be weakening and progressive, so the flood and severe threats are very minor.

A final push of rain and some thunder will move through during the midday hours on Sunday. More robust action is expected to our east over Eastern New York, but we should not see any severe weather or flooding from that activity.

For more on the weather beyond tomorrow, check out my blog post from yesterday morning, where I discuss the cool weather behind Sunday’s rain, the small chance for some frost, and warmer weather by the middle of next week. Don’t forget your zip-code forecast, which includes the 7-Day Outlook as well.

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