A couple days with rain, then a few that are dry

Rain Chances Tuesday-Thursday

Despite starting the day with abundant sunshine, rain is on the way for the Finger Lakes Tuesday afternoon.

I am watching an area of rain over Lake Superior early this morning. This rain has developed along a warm front and is tracking southeast toward the Finger Lakes.

The models so far are too far to the north with the rain. I see no reason why this trend should not hold, which would put the rain directly into the Finger Lakes this afternoon while just clipping the western Southern Tier.

This light but steady rain should arrive by 1 or 2 PM and should continue through the afternoon and into the evening.

Before the rain, temperatures should rise from another chilly start into the low and mid 60s. Temperatures will slip back into the 50s late this afternoon and evening as the rain falls but will then rise back to the low 60s overnight.

Additional scattered showers are likely behind the steady rain after midnight and early into Wednesday.

Temperatures will then warm into the 70s by early Wednesday afternoon. By the mid-afternoon, numerous scattered showers and thunderstorms should begin to fire up. There is a small chance for some minor flooding with this rain, but severe weather is not expected.

Showers and storms will persist into the evening and overnight before tapering off by sunrise Thursday. A couple isolated showers or storms will continue to be possible on Thursday, but the rain will be much more sporadic than either today or Wednesday.

High temperatures Thursday will be around 70 degrees.

Dry Weekend, Possibly Longer

High pressure will build in late Thursday into Friday and stick around for the weekend. As a result, we are likely to string together a minimum of three days with dry weather Friday, Saturday, and Sunday.

Friday may start with a few morning clouds, especially across the Southern Tier. Any clouds should eventually give way to clear, sunny skies. Morning lows will be in the upper 40s with afternoon highs in the low 70s.

Saturday and Sunday may both have some sunshine filtered through a deck of thin clouds high in the atmosphere. This is still a bit uncertain, for reasons I will mention in a moment.

Temperatures Saturday will be close to normal with lows around 50 degrees and highs in the mid 70s. Sunday will be a touch warmer, with mid and upper 50s for lows and upper 70s and possibly low 80s for highs.

Beyond Sunday, the confidence in the forecast drops like a rock. An area of disturbed weather in the Gulf of Mexico will drift north into Texas today and tomorrow, then meander around the southeastern quarter of the nation through the weekend.

There is a chance that an approaching front late in the weekend could capture some of that moisture and bring it north. If it does, the aforementioned clouds Saturday and especially Sunday will be more likely. This scenario could also bring thunderstorms with torrential downpours early next week.

Equally likely, however, is a scenario where the inbound front is weaker and further north. In this case, the two systems remain separate, with the tropical moisture drifting east towards the Southeast coast while the front remains north into Canada. This would result in the possibility of several more days of dry weather continuing well into next week.